The Long Telegram 2.0: A Neo-Kennanite Approach to Russia lays out
an original argument for understanding Russia that goes deep into
its history, starting with the tri-partite dictum “orthodoxy,
autocracy, nationality,” formulated in 1832 by Russia’s
then-minister of culture, count Sergey Uvarov. The author explores
Uvarov’s triad in the context of modern Russia, adding five more
traits: exceptionalism, expansionism, historical primordialism,
worship of the military, and glorification of suffering. The author
argues that, as presently constituted, Russia cannot become a
democracy, and, sooner than later, it will disintegrate,
replicating the fate of the Soviet Union. The key reasons for
these, according to the author, are: weak mechanisms for the
transition of power, poorly developed institutions of the state,
feeble economy and education, frail ideology, and, most
importantly, the lack of a unified national identity.
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