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Causation, Prediction, and Search (Paperback, Softcover reprint of the original 1st ed. 1993)
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Causation, Prediction, and Search (Paperback, Softcover reprint of the original 1st ed. 1993)
Series: Lecture Notes in Statistics, 81
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This book is intended for anyone, regardless of discipline, who is
interested in the use of statistical methods to help obtain
scientific explanations or to predict the outcomes of actions,
experiments or policies. Much of G. Udny Yule's work illustrates a
vision of statistics whose goal is to investigate when and how
causal influences may be reliably inferred, and their comparative
strengths estimated, from statistical samples. Yule's enterprise
has been largely replaced by Ronald Fisher's conception, in which
there is a fundamental cleavage between experimental and non
experimental inquiry, and statistics is largely unable to aid in
causal inference without randomized experimental trials. Every now
and then members of the statistical community express misgivings
about this turn of events, and, in our view, rightly so. Our work
represents a return to something like Yule's conception of the
enterprise of theoretical statistics and its potential practical
benefits. If intellectual history in the 20th century had gone
otherwise, there might have been a discipline to which our work
belongs. As it happens, there is not. We develop material that
belongs to statistics, to computer science, and to philosophy; the
combination may not be entirely satisfactory for specialists in any
of these subjects. We hope it is nonetheless satisfactory for its
purpose."
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