In November 2009, Gen Norton A. Schwartz, the Air Force chief of
staff, tasked the Air Force Research Institute (AFRI) to answer the
following question: What critical capabilities-implemented by the
combatant commanders-will the nation require of the Air Force by
2030? Preparing for the challenges of a geostrategic environment 20
years in the future required a multiphase research plan. First, the
AFRI team identified the nation's vital interests: commerce; secure
energy supplies; freedom of action at sea, in space, in cyberspace,
and in the skies; nuclear deterrence; and regional stability. The
team analyzed four future world scenarios-a peer competitor,
resurgent power, failed state, and jihadist insurgency-in relation
to the nation's vital interests and the 12 Air Force core
functions. The resulting analysis led to a synthesis of the core
functions into five critical capabilities designed to meet the Air
Force's strategic challenges in 2030: power projection; freedom of
action in air, space, and cyberspace; global situational awareness;
air diplomacy; and military support to civil authorities (MSCA).
For several reasons, the service's ability to project power will be
severely tested over the next generation. Because many current
systems are reaching the end of their service lives, the Air Force
must recapitalize these assets to maintain its ability to project
power. Domestic and international pressures may dictate that
American forces operate from fewer overseas locations-magnifying
the importance of power projection. Further, technically advanced
adversaries will challenge the United States in space and
cyberspace, making power projection a necessity to protect national
interests. To be effective in the increased threat environment of
2030, the Air Force must integrate air, space, and cyber
capabilities-focusing on strategic effects. Integrating these
capabilities across domains will become a key enabler and force
multiplier over the coming decades. Domain superiority is not
guaranteed in the future. As the technological gap between the
United States and other actors narrows, adversaries will contest
the Air Force's preeminence in air, space, and cyberspace. Today's
freedom of action in space and cyberspace will encounter direct
threats. Therefore, to gain superiority in either domain, the Air
Force must develop resiliency in both space and cyber systems and
thereby create an effective deterrent. Reducing the incentive for
attack by negating gain is imperative. Further, creating systems
that can continue effective operations following attack will be
essential in the increasingly complex battlespace of 2030. Air
diplomacy-the employment of power through capabilities such as
humanitarian assistance, deterrence, and power projection-takes
advantage of airpower's inherent soft-power capabilities. Today the
service often conducts these missions through ad hoc means.
However, the Air Force must develop a deliberate and comprehensive
air diplomacy strategy to improve the effectiveness of these
efforts; moreover, it should address specific ends, ways, and means
of supporting the combatant commander's theater plan. The service
also must commit to organizing, training, and equipping for the air
diplomacy mission to meet combatant commanders' requirements. In
coming years the nation will look to the Air Force to provide power
projection; freedom of action in air, space, and cyber; global
situational awareness; air diplomacy; and MSCA to meet the
strategic challenges Americans will soon face. Maintaining these
capabilities will require continuous attention and investment, or
they will erode. The United States is in danger of being overtaken
by emerging adversaries in a number of areas the nation has long
taken for granted. Focusing on these five capabilities will assure
the Air Force contribution to national security as the nation moves
toward 2030.
General
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