With the end of the Cold War, the International Monetary Fund
emerged as the most powerful international institution in history.
But how much influence can the IMF exert over fiercely contested
issues in domestic politics that affect the lives of millions? In
"Lending Credibility," Randall Stone develops the first systematic
approach to answering this question. Deploying an arsenal of
methods from a range of social sciences rarely combined, he mounts
a forceful challenge to conventional wisdom. Focusing on the former
Soviet bloc, Stone finds that the IMF is neither as powerful as
some critics fear, nor as weak as others believe, but that the
answer hinges on the complex factor of how much credibility it can
muster from country to country.
Stone begins by building a formal, game-theoretic model of
lending credibility, which he then subjects to sophisticated
quantitative testing on original data from twenty-six countries
over the 1990s. Next come detailed, interview-based case studies on
negotiations between the IMF and Russia, Ukraine, Poland, and
Bulgaria. Stone asserts that the IMF has exerted startling
influence over economic policy in smaller countries, such as Poland
and Bulgaria. However, where U.S. foreign policy interests come
more heavily into play, as in Russia, the IMF cannot credibly
commit to enforcing the loans-for-policy contract. This erodes its
ability to facilitate enduring market reforms. Stone's context is
the postcommunist transition in Europe and Asia, but his findings
carry implications for IMF activities the world over.
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