Current debates about economic crises typically focus on the role
that public debt and debt-fueled public spending play in economic
growth. This illuminating and provocative work shows that it is the
rapid expansion of private rather than public debt that constrains
growth and sparks economic calamities like the financial crisis of
2008. Relying on the findings of a team of economists, credit
expert Richard Vague argues that the Great Depression of the 1930s,
the economic collapse of the past decade, and many other sharp
downturns around the world were all preceded by a spike in
privately held debt. Vague presents an algorithm for predicting
crises and argues that China may soon face disaster. Since American
debt levels have not declined significantly since 2008, Vague
believes that economic growth in the United States will suffer
unless banks embrace a policy of debt restructuring. All informed
citizens, but especially those interested in economic policy and
history, will want to contend with Vague's distressing arguments
and evidence.
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