Most violent conflicts since the turn of this century were in
countries that had experienced an earlier violent conflict. How can
we tell when a country is likely to remain stuck in a cycle of
violence? What factors suggest it might be "ripe" for stabilizing
and peace building? The authors studied four cases: Chad is stuck
in a cycle of violence, while El Salvador, Laos, and Mozambique
have had different results in their transitions from violence to
stability to peace. Conflicts without internal cohesion of
combatants or pressure from foreign patrons to stop fighting are
probably not ripe for stabilizing. Where there are subnational or
regional actors committed to violence, post-conflict peace building
is not likely to succeed without enforcement capacity to contain
violence or demonstrated commitments to increasing political
inclusion and making material improvements in the lives of
residents.
General
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