Since publication of Hetzel's The Monetary Policy of the Federal
Reserve (Cambridge University Press, 2008), the intellectual
consensus that had characterized macroeconomics has disappeared.
That consensus emphasized efficient markets, rational expectations
and the efficacy of the price system in assuring macroeconomic
stability. The 2008-9 recession not only destroyed the professional
consensus about the kinds of models required to understand cyclical
fluctuations but also revived the credit-cycle or asset-bubble
explanations of recession that dominated thinking in the nineteenth
century and the first half of the twentieth century. These
'market-disorder' views emphasize excessive risk taking in
financial markets and the need for government regulation. The
present book argues for the alternative 'monetary-disorder' view of
recessions. A review of cyclical instability over the last two
centuries places the 2008-9 recession in the monetary-disorder
tradition, which focuses on the monetary instability created by
central banks rather than on a boom-bust cycle in financial
markets.
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