There is concern within some factions of the energy industry about
an approaching global crisis caused by peak oil production. To shed
light on the subject, this book assesses the threat that depletion
poses to the availability of fossil energy resources. It does so by
estimating cumulative supply curves for conventional petroleum
(oil, gas, and natural gas liquids) and for three unconventional
sources of liquids (heavy oil, oil sands, and oil shale). The
analysis extends the important study conducted by the US Geological
Survey (2000) on this topic by taking account of (1) conventional
petroleum resources from provinces not assessed by the Survey or
other organizations, (2) future reserve growth, (3) unconventional
sources of liquids, and (4) production costs. The results indicate
that large quantities of conventional and unconventional resources
are available and can be produced at costs substantially below
current market oil prices of around US$140 per barrel. These
findings suggest that fossil energy is likely to last far longer
than many are now predicting and that depletion need not drive
market prices above the relatively high levels prevailing over the
past several years.
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