"This marvelous book by Frydman and Goldberg documents . . .
invaluable insights of the 'early modern' theory of capitalism that
were lost when the profession endorsed rational expectations
equilibrium. . . . Happily for me and, I believe, for the
profession of economics, this deeply original and important book
gives signs of bringing us back on track--on a road toward an
economics possessing a genuine microfoundation and at the same time
a capacity to illuminate some of the many aspects of the modern
economy that the rational expectations approach cannot by its
nature explain."--from the foreword by Edmund S. Phelps, winner of
the 2006 Nobel Prize in economics
"Anyone who has ever studied markets for financial assets such
as currencies knows that it is very difficult to explain, much less
predict, short to medium term fluctuations. In their innovative new
work, "Imperfect Knowledge Economics," Roman Frydman and Michael
Goldberg make a strong case that it would be particularly helpful
to improve our understanding of how financial markets process new
knowledge and information. In addition, the book offers a useful
guide to understanding existing empirical exchange rate
models."--Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University
"The centrality of expectations in understanding economic
fluctuations has long been recognized, but their formation has not
been adequately described. The rational expectation hypothesis was
a bold and ingenious attempt, but it has proved empirically very
far from satisfactory, most strikingly, in the field of foreign
exchange markets, where the good documentation makes the failure
easier to establish. Frydman and Goldberg open new doors by a more
realistic understandingof the process of forming expectations; by
recognizing that universal rules are intrinsically impossible, they
exhibit a more creative understanding of the recent history of
foreign exchange spot and futures markets."--Kenneth J. Arrow,
Nobel Prize-winning economist
"If you are looking for a way to escape from the Procrustean bed
of rational expectations equilibrium--and, if you pay attention to
real-world data, you should be--try reading this imaginative and
intelligent book. It will amply repay your efforts."--Alan S.
Blinder, Princeton University
"If you have been puzzled by the difficulty of reconciling
uncertainty with the equilibrium models that economists use to
explain market outcomes, this is the right book to read and reread.
It launches a new approach, "Imperfect Knowledge Economics," which
highlights the long-recognized failure of prespecified general
equilibrium modeling to account for the behavior of agents under
changing conditions. Frydman and Goldberg are thus proposing models
that are able to generate robust qualitative predictions, leading
to a better understanding of short- and long-term swings in
economic variables. In macroeconomics, there will undoubtedly be a
'before' and 'after' this book."--Jean-Paul Fitoussi, president,
l'Observatoire francais des conjonctures economiques, Paris
"The record of contemporary economics in explaining the behavior
of exchange rates is a sorry one. Frydman and Goldberg make the
foreign exchange rate problem the particular object of a searching
critique of current macroeconomics and use it also as the vehicle
for demonstrating how they would break its methodological
'stranglehold.' Their own alternative, imperfect
knowledgeeconomics, is systematically worked out and persuasively
argued. It is my hope that the book will be widely read and
debated."--Axel Leijonhufvud, UCLA and the University of Trento
"This is a major and controversial contribution to
macroeconomics that cannot fail to make an impact in several areas.
Academics will read it for the comprehensive critique of much
macroeconomic theory. More empirically motivated economists will
look carefully at the rich scope for empirical analysis that the
book opens up. Policymakers too will want to look at it--and will
be relieved to see that they come off much better than the main
authors of the rational expectations school."--Niels Thygesen,
University of Copenhagen
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