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Rolling the Iron Dice - Historical Analogies and Decisions to Use Military Force in Regional Contingencies (Hardcover, New)
Loot Price: R2,953
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Rolling the Iron Dice - Historical Analogies and Decisions to Use Military Force in Regional Contingencies (Hardcover, New)
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Does history provide lessons for foreign policy makers today?
Macdonald combines cognitive psychology theories about analogical
reasoning, international relations theories about military
intervention, and original archival research to analyze the role of
historical information in foreign policy decision making. He looks
at the role of historical analogies in Anglo-American decision
making during foreign policy crises involving the possible use of
force in regional contingencies during a crucial period in the
1950s when the West faced an emerging Soviet threat. This study
analyzes the influence of situational and individual variables in a
comparison of more than ten leaders from two nations facing four
different crises. Rolling the Iron Dice describes the often
significant effect of historical analogies on perceptions of the
adversary and of allies, time constraints, policy options and
risks, as well as the justification of policy in four crises: the
1950 Korean invasion; the 1951-53 Iranian oil nationalization
incident; the 1956 Suez crisis; and the 1958 crisis in Lebanon and
Jordan. Contrary to both the slippery slope and the escalation
models of military intervention, Macdonald argues that leaders
decide extremely early in a crisis, often on the basis of an
historical analogy, but also based on perceptions of the
rationality of an adversary, whether to use military force. Their
decision does not change unless the adversary capitulates to every
demand.
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