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Drift into Failure - From Hunting Broken Components to Understanding Complex Systems (Hardcover, New Ed)
Loot Price: R4,578
Discovery Miles 45 780
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Drift into Failure - From Hunting Broken Components to Understanding Complex Systems (Hardcover, New Ed)
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What does the collapse of sub-prime lending have in common with a
broken jackscrew in an airliner's tailplane? Or the oil spill
disaster in the Gulf of Mexico with the burn-up of Space Shuttle
Columbia? These were systems that drifted into failure. While
pursuing success in a dynamic, complex environment with limited
resources and multiple goal conflicts, a succession of small,
everyday decisions eventually produced breakdowns on a massive
scale. We have trouble grasping the complexity and normality that
gives rise to such large events. We hunt for broken parts, fixable
properties, people we can hold accountable. Our analyses of complex
system breakdowns remain depressingly linear, depressingly
componential - imprisoned in the space of ideas once defined by
Newton and Descartes. The growth of complexity in society has
outpaced our understanding of how complex systems work and fail.
Our technologies have gotten ahead of our theories. We are able to
build things - deep-sea oil rigs, jackscrews, collateralized debt
obligations - whose properties we understand in isolation. But in
competitive, regulated societies, their connections proliferate,
their interactions and interdependencies multiply, their
complexities mushroom. This book explores complexity theory and
systems thinking to understand better how complex systems drift
into failure. It studies sensitive dependence on initial
conditions, unruly technology, tipping points, diversity - and
finds that failure emerges opportunistically, non-randomly, from
the very webs of relationships that breed success and that are
supposed to protect organizations from disaster. It develops a
vocabulary that allows us to harness complexity and find new ways
of managing drift.
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