Changing consumer choices have built microchip factories where
cotton fields used to be and have doomed cities from New Bedford to
Detroit, while the impact of these choices on jobs and tax revenues
has stimulated the creation of models of consumer behavior. Even
finely tuned econometric models, however, have not served well as
guides for policy choices, for they have relied chiefly on data for
the Great Depression and the Cold War era or on biased budget
surveys. Stanley Lebergott here provides the way to greater realism
with new data for the entire twentieth century, including the
decades of peacetime prosperity. The new measures also permit
moving from the level of the nation to the state.
Analyzing our interest in individual economic well-being,
Lebergott argues that consumer expenditure provides a better guide
than the usual data on money income before tax. He also challenges
continued reliance on a single consumption function in macro
models. In other essays he uses the new data to demonstrate that
the supposed "flawed prosperity" of the 1920s was not responsible
for the Great Depression; points out the limitations of the usual
consumer budget surveys; and contrasts the role of age, nativity,
and other factors in creating interstate differences. The new data,
which link to the official BEA estimates, will provide raw material
to test and extend theories of how the consumer and the economy
function.
Originally published in 1995.
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