Project Selection Under Uncertainty is the result of a five-year
research program on the selection of projects in New Product
Development (NPD). Choosing the New Product Development portfolio
is of critical importance in today's business environment. The NPD
portfolio has considerable strategic effect on the "middle term"
success of a business.
This book takes a step in developing a theory that addresses the
need for quantitative prioritization criteria within the broader
strategic context of the R&D portfolios. Its foundation lies in
mathematical theory of resource-constrained optimization with the
goal to maximize quantitative returns. The book seeks to broaden
the portfolio discussion in two ways. First, simplified models -
appropriate for the data-poor NPD context - are developed, which
attempt to illuminate the structure of the choice problem and
robust qualitative rules of thumb, rather than detailed algorithmic
decision support. Such robust rules can be applied in the R&D
environment of poor data availability. Second, the annual portfolio
review is not the only important choice in resource allocation. In
addition, the book discusses how ideas might be pre-screened as
they emerge, and how projects should be prioritized once they are
funded and ongoing.
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