Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and
uncertainty. The ability to analyze, predict, and prepare for the
level of risk entailed by these decisions is, therefore, one of the
most constant and vital skills needed for analysts, scientists and
managers.
Risk analysis can be defined as a systematic use of information
to identify hazards, threats and opportunities, as well as their
causes and consequences, and then express risk. In order to
successfully develop such a systematic use of information, those
analyzing the risk need to understand the fundamental concepts of
risk analysis and be proficient in a variety of methods and
techniques. "Risk Analysis" adopts a practical, predictive approach
and guides the reader through a number of applications.
Provides an accessible and concise guide to performing risk
analysis in a wide variety of fields, with minimal prior knowledge
required. Adopts a broad perspective on risk, with focus on
predictions and highlighting uncertainties beyond expected values
and probabilities, allowing a more flexible approach than
traditional statistical analysis. Acknowledges that expected values
and probabilities could produce poor predictions - surprises may
occur. Emphasizes the planning and use of risk analyses, rather
than just the risk analysis methods and techniques, including the
statistical analysis tools. Features many real-life case studies
from a variety of applications and practical industry problems,
including areas such as security, business and economy, transport,
oil & gas and ICT (Information and Communication Technology).
Forms an ideal companion volume to Aven's previous Wiley text
"Foundations of Risk Analysis,"
Professor Aven's previous book "Foundations of Risk Analysis"
presented and discussed several risk analysis approaches and
recommended a predictive approach. This new text expands upon this
predictive approach, exploring further the risk analysis
principles, concepts, methods and models in an applied format. This
book provides a useful and practical guide to decision-making,
aimed at professionals within the risk analysis and risk management
field.
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