As one of the first texts to take a behavioral approach to
macroeconomic expectations, this book introduces a new way of doing
economics. Roetheli uses cognitive psychology in a bottom-up method
of modeling macroeconomic expectations. His research is based on
laboratory experiments and historical data, which he extends to
real-world situations. Pattern extrapolation is shown to be the key
to understanding expectations of inflation and income. The
quantitative model of expectations is used to analyze the course of
inflation and nominal interest rates in a range of countries and
historical periods. The model of expected income is applied to the
analysis of business cycle phenomena such as the great recession in
the United States. Data and spreadsheets are provided for readers
to do their own computations of macroeconomic expectations. This
book offers new perspectives in many areas of macro and financial
economics.
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