Thomas Bayes was an eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and
amateur mathematician whose obscure life belied the profound impact
of his work. Like most research into probability at the time, his
theorem - independently discovered a few years later by
Pierre-Simon Laplace, the great French mathematician - was mainly
seen as relevant to games of chance, like dice and cards. But its
implications soon became clear, affecting fields as diverse as
medicine, law and artificial intelligence. Bayes' theorem helps
explain why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false
positives, causing unnecessary anxiety for patients. A failure to
account for it in court it has put innocent people in jail. But its
influence goes far beyond practical applications. A cornerstone of
rational thought, Bayesian principles are used in modelling and
forecasting. 'Superforecasters', a group of expert predictors who
outperform CIA analysts, use a Bayesian approach. And many argue
that Bayes' theorem is not just a useful tool, but a description of
almost everything - that it is the underlying architecture of
rationality. Fusing biography, razor-sharp science communication
and intellectual history, EVERYTHING IS PREDICTABLE is a
captivating tour of Bayes' theorem and its impact on modern life.
From medical testing to artificial intelligence, Tom Chivers shows
how a single compelling idea can have far-reaching consequences.
General
| Imprint: |
Weidenfeld & Nicolson
|
| Country of origin: |
United Kingdom |
| Release date: |
February 2024 |
| Authors: |
Tom Chivers
|
| Dimensions: |
240 x 156 x 35mm (L x W x T) |
| Format: |
Hardcover
|
| Pages: |
320 |
| ISBN-13: |
978-1-399-60403-1 |
| Categories: |
Books
Promotions
|
| LSN: |
1-399-60403-1 |
| Barcode: |
9781399604031 |
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