Master's Thesis from the year 2008 in the subject Statistics,
grade: Passed, RMIT (RMIT), course: Master of Engineering (systems
engineering), 120 entries in the bibliography, language: English,
abstract: This thesis investigates the effect of ideology on the
survival times of 557 terrorist organisations. While there is broad
acceptance of the view that the majority of terrorist organisations
are short-lived, quantitative studies of the life spans of
terrorist organisations are rare. Terrorist organisations go to
great lengths to ensure their survival, with many terrorist
organisations viewing their continued existence as a victory in
itself. Within the broader field of organisational analysis, an
organisation's age is viewed as a key variable in explaining the
development of its structures, functions, and, most importantly,
its likelihood of continued survival. The ideology through which a
terrorist organisation views the world is thought by many scholars
of terrorism to play an important role in its justification for
violence, its strategic intentions, the targets it selects, and its
survival prospects. While many typologies of terrorist ideologies
have been proposed, one of the most common approaches uses four
broad categories of ideological orientation:
Separatist/nationalist, left-wing, religious, and right-wing.
Separatist/nationalist organisations are widely believed to have
much greater longevity than organisations that lack a distinct,
territorially bounded, ethno-nationalist base. The non-parametric
and semi-parametric statistical analyses of the life spans of 557
terrorist groups presented in this thesis are complemented by a
description of various stage-based life cycle models. The concept
of an organisational life cycle is used to highlight and explain
some of the frequently observed patterns and behaviours of
terrorist organisations as they form, grow, peak, fragment, and
fail. This provides the contextual background to the quantitative
analysis.
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