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Business Cycles (Paperback, 2nd ed.)
Loot Price: R1,764
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Business Cycles (Paperback, 2nd ed.)
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Victor Zarnowitz has long been a leader in the study of business
cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting. These papers represent
a carefully integrated and up-to-date study of business cycles,
reexamining some of his earlier research as well as addressing
recent developments in the literature and in history. In part one,
Zarnowitz reviews with characteristic insight various theories of
the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories as
well as more recent rational expectations and real business cycle
theories. In doing so, he examines how the business cycle may have
changed as the size of government, the exercise of fiscal and
monetary policies, the openness of the economy to international
forces, and the industrial structure have evolved over time.
Emphasizing important research from the 1980s, Zarnowitz discusses
in part two various measures of the trends and cycles in economic
activity, including output, prices, inventories, investment in
residential and nonresidential structures, equipment, and other
economic variables. Here the author explores the duration and
severity of U.S. business cycles over more than 150 years, and
evaluates the ability of macro models to simulate past behavior of
the economy. In part three the performance of leading, coincident,
and lagging indicators is described and assessed and evidence is
presented on the value of their composite measures. Finally, part
four offers an analysis of the degree of success of large
commercial forecasting firms and of many individual economists in
predicting the course of inflation, real growth, unemployment,
interest rates, and other key economic variables. Business Cycles
is a timely study, certain tobecome a basic reference for
professional forecasters and economists in government, academia,
and the business community.
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