Product sales, especially for new products, are influenced by many
factors. These factors are both internal and external to the
selling organization, and are both controllable and uncontrollable.
Due to the enormous complexity of such factors, it is not
surprising that product failure rates are relatively high. Indeed,
new product failure rates have variously been reported as between
40 and 90 percent.
Despite this multitude of factors, marketing researchers have not
been deterred from developing and designing techniques to predict
or explain the levels of new product sales over time. The
proliferation of the internet, the necessity or developing a road
map to plan the launch and exit times of various generations of a
product, and the shortening of product life cycles are challenging
firms to investigate market penetration, or innovation diffusion,
models. These models not only provide information on new product
sales over time but also provide insight on the speed with which a
new product is being accepted by various buying groups, such as
those identified as innovators, early adopters, early majority,
late majority, and laggards.
New Product Diffusion Models aims to distill, synthesize, and
integrate the best thinking that is currently available on the
theory and practice of new product diffusion models. This
state-of-the-art assessment includes contributions by individuals
who have been at the forefront of developing and applying these
models in industry. The book's twelve chapters are written by a
combined total of thirty-two experts who together represent
twenty-five different universities and other organizations in
Australia, Europe, Hong Kong, Israel, and the United States. The
book will be useful for researchers and students in marketing and
technological forecasting, as well as those in other allied
disciplines who study relevant aspects of innovation diffusion.
Practitioners in high-tech and consumer durable industries should
also gain new insights from New Product Diffusion Models.
The book is divided into five parts: I. Overview; II. Strategic,
Global, and Digital Environments for Diffusion Analysis; III.
Diffusion Models; IV. Estimation and V. Applications and Software.
The final section includes a PC-based software program developed by
Gary L. Lilien and Arvind Rangaswamy (1998) to implement the Bass
diffusion model. A case on high-definition television is included
to illustrate the various features of the software. A free, 15-day
trial access period for the updated software can be downloaded from
http: //www.mktgeng.com/diffusionbook. Among the book's many
highlights are chapters addressing the implications posed by the
internet, globalization, and production policies upon diffusion of
new products and technologies in the population.
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