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International Debt Reexamined (Paperback)
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International Debt Reexamined (Paperback)
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The international debt crisis that erupted in 1982 threatened the
world financial system and turned the 1980s into a lost decade for
Latin America. But the crisis jolted governments throughout the
region into adopting sweeping economic reforms. By the early 1990s
inflation was lower, growth was reviving, the major debtors had
reached "Brady Plan" workout agreements reducing bank debt in
exchange for collateral, and capital was entering the region in
unprecedented magnitudes.This study tries to make sense of this
historic financial episode and to derive lessons for future policy.
Cline first returns to his 1983 projection models that figured
importantly in the debate at that time, and reruns them with the
benefit of hindsight to see what went wrong (e.g., capital flight)
and what went right (e.g., revival of industrial country growth).
He provides a critical survey of the voluminous economics
literature that emerged from the debt crisis. The study evaluates
performance of the evolving international debt strategy, which
eventually succeeded brilliantly in preserving international
financial stability and restoring debtor access to credit markets
but failed to achieve debtor country growth in the 1980s.The study
reviews policy reform and Brady plan results for major Latin
American countries; provides new analysis of today's debt problems
in Russia and Africa; and analyzes the degree of vulnerability of
Latin Americas capital market renaissance to such factors as
overvalued exchange rates and a resurgence of US interest rates. It
concludes with suggestions for institutional change and policy
guidelines to help avoid future crises.
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