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Risk Taking and Decision Making - Foreign Military Intervention Decisions (Paperback)
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Risk Taking and Decision Making - Foreign Military Intervention Decisions (Paperback)
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Risks are an integral part of complex, high-stakes decisions, and
decisionmakers are faced with the unavoidable tasks of assessing
risks and forming risk preferences. This is true for all decision
domains, including financial, environmental, and foreign policy
domains, among others. How well decisionmakers deal with risk
affects, to a considerable extent, the quality of their decisions.
This book provides the most comprehensive analysis available of the
elements that influence risk judgments and preferences.
The book has two dimensions: theoretical and
comparative-historical. The study of risk-taking behavior has been
dominated by the rational choice approach. Instead, the author
adopts a socio-cognitive approach involving: a multivariate theory
integrating contextual, cognitive, motivational, and personality
factors that affect an individual decisionmaker's judgment and
preferences; the social interaction and structural effects of the
decisionmaking group and its organizational setting; and the role
of cultural-societal values and norms that sanction or discourage
risk taking behavior.
The book's theoretical approach is applied and tested in five
historical case studies of foreign military interventions. The
richly detailed empirical data on the case studies make them,
metaphorically speaking, an ideal laboratory for applying a
process-tracing approach in studying judgment and decision
processes at varying risk levels. The case studies analyzed are:
U.S. interventions in Grenada in 1983 and Panama in 1989 (both low
risk); Soviet intervention in Czechoslovakia in 1968 (moderate
risk): U.S. intervention in Vietnam in 1964-68 (high risk); and
Israel's intervention in Lebanon in 1982-83 (high risk).
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