Introducing a novel approach to setting environmental pollution standards that allow for proper treatment of uncertainty and variation, this book surveys the forms of standards and proposes a new kind of "statistically verifiable ideal standard." Setting Environmental Standards includes: a current analysis regarding the treatment of uncertainty and variation in environmental standard setting a review of basic principles in standard setting, including costs, actions and effects, and benefits examples where uncertainty and variation have been well-treated in current practice as well as examples where clear deficiencies are apparent specific proposals for the future approach to setting environmental pollution standards - encompassing the anticipated elements of uncertainty and variability The issues discussed serve statisticians as well as those persons involved with environmental standards. Scientists in agencies responsible for setting standards, in organizations advising such agencies or working in industries subject to these standards, will find Setting Environmental Standards an invaluable reference.

Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. "Uncertain Judgements" introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples.

This is achieved by:

Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research. Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities. Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs. Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences. Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms.

An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, "Uncertain Judgements" will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.