Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about
some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that
information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important
in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear
installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where
expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good
information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by
augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian
statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and
practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings
in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably.
"Uncertain Judgements" introduces the area, before guiding the
reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods,
illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples.
This is achieved by:
Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of
expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and
psychological research. Detailing techniques for the elicitation of
a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most
common types of quantities. Providing a comprehensive review of the
available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and
future research needs. Using examples from many disciplines,
including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences.
Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological
terms.
An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists
with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of
Bayesian analysis, "Uncertain Judgements" will also benefit
decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the
medical and social sciences.
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