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Over the first ten years of its existence, the euro has proved to
be more than a powerful symbol of collective identity. It has
provided price stability to previously inflation-prone countries;
it has offered a shelter against currency crises; and it has by and
large been conducive to budgetary discipline. The eurozone has
attracted five new members in addition to the initial eleven, and
many countries in Europe wish to adopt it.The euro has also been
successful internationally. Even though research presented in this
volume confirms that it has not rivaled the dollar's world currency
status, it has certainly become a strong regional currency in
Europe and the Mediterranean region. Some countries in the region
have de facto adopted it, several peg to it, and many have become
at least partially euroized. However, the euro's impressive first
decade is likely to be followed by a much more difficult period.
The present financial crisis is posing at least two important
challenges: real economic adjustment within the euro area and
maintenance of fiscal and financial stability without a central
government authority capable of taking appropriate financial and
fiscal decisions in difficult times.The papers and remarks in this
volume demonstrate that the euro has proved to be attractive as a
fair weather currency for countries and investors well beyond its
borders. But it remains to be seen whether it is equipped to also
succeed as a stormy weather currency.
The Asian financial crisis of 1997-98 was devastating for the
region, but policymakers at least believed that they gained a great
deal of knowledge on how to prevent, mitigate, and resolve crises
in the future. Fifteen years later, the Asian developing countries
escaped the worst effects of the global crisis of 2008-10, in part
because they had learned the right lessons from their own
experience. In this important study, the Asian Development Bank and
Peterson Institute for International Economics join forces to
illuminate the contrast between Asia's performance during the more
recent crisis with its performance during its own crisis and the
gap between what the US and EU leaders recommended to Asia then and
what they have practiced on themselves since then. The overriding
lessons emerging from the essays in this volume are that countries
need to prepare for crises as if they cannot be prevented, make
room for stabilization policies and deploy them rapidly when crises
hit, and address the need for self-insurance globally if they can,
or regionally if they must.
Will the Japanese government take the decisive but manageable
policy actions needed to bring about economic recovery? Criticism
of current Japanese macroeconomic and financial policies is so
widespread that the reasons for it are assumed to be self-evident.
In this volume, Adam Posen explains in depth why a shift in
Japanese fiscal and monetary policies, as well as financial reform,
would be in Japan's own self-interest. He demonstrates that
Japanese economic stagnation in the 1990s is the result of mistaken
policies of fiscal austerity and financial laissez-faire rather
than any supposed structural failures of the "Japan Model". The
author outlines a program for putting the country back on the path
to solid economic growth -- primarily through permanent tax cuts
and monetary stabilization -- and draws broader lessons to be
learned from recent Japanese policy actions that led to country's
continuing stagnation. The book will be a useful supplementary text
for both under-and post-graduate level courses in macroeconomics,
comparative political economy, Japan or East Asian studies, public
finance, and international relations. Restoring Japan's Economic
Growth has been translated into Japanese by Toyo Keizei (Tokyo).
The euro is the only major currency to be created in the 20th
century; it now stands on the brink of becoming one of the world's
two reserve currencies in the 21st century. The euro's use and
development shape the entire agenda for ever-closer union in Europe
and for transatlantic relations. As the currency bearing the brunt
of the US dollar's decline from its overvaluation of the late
1990s, the euro's value and management is critical to the
successful adjustment of international imbalances. And as a
long-run competitor and collaborator with the dollar, the euro
creates the potential for a bipolar international monetary system,
offering unprecedented challenges and opportunities to economic
policymakers. The papers and commentaries in this book explore the
euro's international role, its record thus far, and its future.
Japan is only one of many industrialized economies to suffer a
financial crisis in the past 15 years, but it has suffered the most
from its crisis -- as measured in lost output and investment
opportunities, and in the direct costs of clean-up. Comparing the
response of Japanese policy in the 1990s to that of US monetary and
financial policy to the American Savings and Loan Crisis of the
late 1980s sheds light on the reasons for this outcome. This volume
was created by bringing together several leading academics from the
United States and Japan -- plus former senior policymakers from
both countries -- to discuss the challenges to Japanese financial
and monetary policy in the 1990s. The papers address in turn both
the monetary and financial aspects of the crisis, and the
discussants bring together broad themes across the two countries'
experiences.
As the papers in this Special Report demonstrate, while the
Japanese government's policy response to its banking crisis in the
1990s was slow in comparison to that of the US government a decade
earlier, the underlying dynamics were similar. A combination of
mismanaged partial deregulation and regulatory forbearance gave
rise to the crisis and allowed it to deepen, and only the closure
of some banks and injection of new capital into others began the
resolution. The Bank of Japan's monetary policy from the late 1980s
onward, however, was increasingly out of step with US or other
developed country norms. In particular, the Bank of Japan's limited
response to deflation after being granted independence in 1998
stands out as a dangerous and unusual stance.
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