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It may be possible to claim that, generally speaking, central banks
around the world have never before held such a central and
well-respected position in their respective countries as they hold
now. Their tasks seem to be reasona bly well defined and the
mandate given to them to guarantee price stability has so far
worked more successfully than was perhaps expected. Inflation is
lower than it has been for a long time. One central bank after the
other has been given a position independent of normal party
political processes. Re search concerning monetary policy and other
topics of relevance for central banking has made good progress
during the past decade. Much of the mys tique that has typically
surrounded the internal work and decision-making of central banks
has gradually disappeared. Instead, openness and transparency have
become the key words of the day. The communication channels of
central banks; speeches, inflation reports, minutes of meetings,
etc. receive considerable attention and often give rise to
headlines in the media. The en vironment in which central banks
work and act today has thus undergone changes that in my view are
very positive. However, we should always be on our guard against
complacency. It would be most dangerous for central bankers today
to sit back and relax in the belief that all of the important
problems have been resolved and need no further consideration.
Unless central bankers remain constantly alert and vigilant, their
policy-making can easily deteriorate."
It may be possible to claim that, generally speaking, central banks
around the world have never before held such a central and
well-respected position in their respective countries as they hold
now. Their tasks seem to be reasona bly well defined and the
mandate given to them to guarantee price stability has so far
worked more successfully than was perhaps expected. Inflation is
lower than it has been for a long time. One central bank after the
other has been given a position independent of normal party
political processes. Re search concerning monetary policy and other
topics of relevance for central banking has made good progress
during the past decade. Much of the mys tique that has typically
surrounded the internal work and decision-making of central banks
has gradually disappeared. Instead, openness and transparency have
become the key words of the day. The communication channels of
central banks; speeches, inflation reports, minutes of meetings,
etc. receive considerable attention and often give rise to
headlines in the media. The en vironment in which central banks
work and act today has thus undergone changes that in my view are
very positive. However, we should always be on our guard against
complacency. It would be most dangerous for central bankers today
to sit back and relax in the belief that all of the important
problems have been resolved and need no further consideration.
Unless central bankers remain constantly alert and vigilant, their
policy-making can easily deteriorate."
This book consists of three long papers, accompanied by a series of
short comments (by Klaus Nesser, Erling Steigum, Danny Quah,
Michael Bergman, and Seppo Honkapohja) and an introduction by the
editors covering the main themes of the book. It combines a
systematic empirical investigation into the characteristics of
business cycles with a review of general theories of the patterns
and dynamics of cycles. The first paper, by John Hassler, Torsten
Persson, and Paul Soderlind, investigates the patterns over time of
business cycles, using data from the remarkable Swedish series
dating from 1860 to the present day, and will become a standard
reference in the literature on empirical investigations of business
cycles. The authors find that there are strong similarities between
the patterns of the business cycles of many countries. The second
paper, by Peter Englund, Anders Vredin, and Anders Warne, analyses
the dynamics of business cycles, and uses applied econometric
analysis to identify different types of exogenous macroeconomic
shocks, again using the Swedish data. The authors conclude that
both permanent and transitory real shocks have lasting effects on
patterns of economic growth. The third paper, by Jean-Michel
Grandmont, has a different emphasis and reviews the theory of
endogenous shocks. In this complex and distinguished paper he
argues that agents may have self-fulfilling expectations of
fluctuations in business activity.
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