The accession of ten new members to the European Union on May 1st 2004 was among the most significant developments in the history of European integration. Based upon studies conducted by the European Forecasting Network, this 2006 book analysed key aspects of the impact of this enlargement with reference to eight of the ten new Member States, namely the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs). It demonstrated that the enlargement had the potential to create profound consequences for both the new Member States and the pre-accession members of the Union, given the unparalleled magnitude of the enlargement, the fact that the CEECs had levels of prosperity and economic development well below the Union average, and their history of participation in centrally planned regimes. The contributions examined regional policy, the debate about accession to the EMU, the macroeconomic trajectories of the Central and Eastern European economies and their likely development.

The accession of ten new members to the European Union on May 1st 2004 was among the most significant developments in the history of European integration. Based upon studies conducted by the European Forecasting Network, this 2006 book analysed key aspects of the impact of this enlargement with reference to eight of the ten new Member States, namely the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs). It demonstrated that the enlargement had the potential to create profound consequences for both the new Member States and the pre-accession members of the Union, given the unparalleled magnitude of the enlargement, the fact that the CEECs had levels of prosperity and economic development well below the Union average, and their history of participation in centrally planned regimes. The contributions examined regional policy, the debate about accession to the EMU, the macroeconomic trajectories of the Central and Eastern European economies and their likely development.

This book provides a wide-ranging account of the literature on co-integration and the modelling of integrated processes (those which accumulate the effects of past shocks). Data series which display integrated behaviour are common in economics, although techniques appropriate to analysing such data are of recent origin and there are few existing expositions of the literature. This book focuses on the exploration of relationships among integrated data series and the exploitation of these relationships in dynamic econometric modelling. The concepts of co-integration and error-correction models are fundamental components of the modelling strategy.

This area of time-series econometrics has grown in importance over the past decade and is of interest to econometric theorists and applied econometricians alike. By explaining the important concepts informally, but also presenting them formally, the book bridges the gap between purely descriptive and purely theoretical accounts of the literature. The asymptotic theory of integrated processes is described and the tools provided by this theory are used to develop the distributions of estimators and test statistics. Practical modelling advice, and the use of techniques for systems estimation, are also emphasized.

A knowledge of econometrics, statistics, and matrix algebra at the level of a final-year undergraduate or first-year undergraduate course in econometrics is sufficient for most of the book. Other mathematical tools are described as they occur.