Contents:
Part 1. Box Office Champions, Chaotic Dynamics and Herding 1. Rank Revenue and Survival 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Exhibition 1.3 Tournaments 1.4 Data 1.5 Survival Model 1.6 Results 1.6.1 Survivors 1.6.2 Survival Rates 1.6.3 Rank and Revenue 1.7 Conclusions 2. Dynamics and Contracting 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Supply 2.2.1 Runs and Revenues 2.2.2 Booking and Supply 2.2.3 Contracting 2.2.4 Adaptation 2.2.5 Release Strategies 2.3 Discovery and Dynamics 2.3.1 Search 2.3.2 Bose-Einstein Distribution 2.3.3 Other Models 2.4 Revenue Distributions 2.4.1 Data 2.4.2 Revenue Concentration 2.4.3 Rank and Revenue 2.4.4 Revenue Distribution Dynamics 2.4.5 Identifying the Dynamic 2.5 Explaining the Industry 2.5.1 Launching the Opening 2.5.2 Adaptive Contracting 2.5.3 Admission Pricing 2.5.4 Rentals 2.5.5 Decentralisation 2.6 Conclusions 3. The Breakdown of Herding 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Information and Demand Dynamics 3.3 The Model 3.4 Estimates 3.5 The Stable Paretian Model 3.6 Bifurcation 3.6.1 Path to Equilibrium 3.6.2 Correlations 3.7 Results 3.8 Conclusions Part 2. "Wild" Uncertainty, Tough Decisions and False Beliefs 4. Uncertainty and Stars 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Related Literature 4.2.1 Motion Picture Uncertainty 4.2.2 Stars 4.2.3 Pareto and Levy Distributions 4.3 Modelling Star Power 4.3.1 Modelling Probability Mass 4.3.2. Risk and Survival 4.4 The Movie Data 4.4.1 Sources 4.4.2 The Run 4.4.3 Revenues, Budgets and Profits 4.5 Estimation Results 4.5.1 Revenue Concentration 4.5.2 Opening and Staying Power 4.5.3 Pareto Distribution 4.5.4 The Probability of a Hit 4.5.5 Stars and Hits 4.5.6 Stars and Profit 4.6 'Greenlighting' Movies 4.7 Conclusions 5. Does Hollywood Make Too Many R-rated Movies? 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Production 5.3 'Greenlighting' 5.4 Ranking by Success Rates 5.4.1 Box Office Revenue Success Rates 5.4.2 Return on Production Cost Success Rates 5.5 Ranking by Stochastic Dominance 5.5.1 Revenues 5.5.2 Production Budgets 5.5.3 Rates of Return 5.5.4 Profits and Losses 6. Openings, Legs and Blockbusters 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Cascades 6.3 Performance Statistics 6.4 Modelling the Box Office 6.4.1 Budgets 6.4.2 Sequels 6.4.3 Opening Screens 6.4.4 Genre and Rating 6.4.5 Stars 6.5 Conclusions Part 3. Judges, Lawyers and the Movies 7. Motion Picture Antitrust 7.1 Motion Picture Economics 101 7.1.1 Discovering Demand 7.1.2 Determining Supply 7.1.3 Structuring Incentives 7.1.4 Contracts 7.2 The Feature Motion Picture 7.3 Integration and Licensing 7.3.1 Admission Prices 7.3.2 Runs and Clearance 7.3.3 Exotic Deals 7.3.4 Block Booking and Blind Selling 7.3.5 Integration and Contracts 7.4 The Courts' Analyses 7.4.1 Bidding for Licenses 7.4.2 Controlling the First Run 7.4.3 Leveraging Monopoly 7.5 Paramount's Effects 7.6 Conclusions 8. Paramount and the Stock Market 8.1 Introduction 8.2 The Studio System 8.3 The Paramount Litigation 8.4 Stock Prices 8.5 Was a Cartel Feasible? 8.6 Winners and Losers 8.7 Conclusions 9. Stochastic Market Structure 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Market Power 9.3 Motion Pictures in the Era of Paramount 9.4 Instability 9.5 Turnover of Leaders 9.6 Standard Models are Wrong 9.7 The HHI Does Not Exist 9.8 Conclusions Part 4. A Business of Extremes 10. Profit and the Curse of the Superstar 10.1 Introduction 10.2 The Stable Hypothesis 10.3 Profit 10.4 The Stable Distribution 10.5 Estimation 10.6 Stable Probabilities 10.7 Nobody Knows 10.8 Superstars and Profit 10.9 Averages 10.10 The Curse of the Superstar 10.11 Success Breeds Success 10.12 The Angel's Nightmare 10.13 Contracting 10.14 Conclusions 11. Artists 11.1 Introduction 11.2 On Becoming a Superstar 11.3 Artists and Kurtosis 11.4 Career Expectations and Opportunities 11.5 Luck or Talent? 11.6 Competing for Stars 11.7 Artist Contracts 11.8 Pay When You Do Know 11.9 Director Contracts 11.10 Conclusions 12. Extreme Uncertainty 12. 1 Introduction 12.2 Complex Systems 12.2.1 Chaos 12.2.2 Complexity 12.3 Universality 12.4 Deep Order 12.4.1 Increasing Returns to Information 12.4.2 Nobody Knows 12.4.3 Dominance of Extreme Events 12.4.4 Self-similarity 12.4.5 Runs, Legs and Chaos 12.5 Complexity and the Stable Paretian Distribution Epilogue: Managing when "Nobody Knows Anything" 12.6 Probabilities 12.7 Inside and Outside the Studio 12.8 Risk and Decision Bias 12.9 Narrow Framing and Sure Things 12.10 Financing Movies 12.11 Causality and Kim Basinger 12.12 A Skeptical Attitude

Contents:
Part 1. Box Office Champions, Chaotic Dynamics and Herding 1. Rank Revenue and Survival 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Exhibition 1.3 Tournaments 1.4 Data 1.5 Survival Model 1.6 Results 1.6.1 Survivors 1.6.2 Survival Rates 1.6.3 Rank and Revenue 1.7 Conclusions 2. Dynamics and Contracting 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Supply 2.2.1 Runs and Revenues 2.2.2 Booking and Supply 2.2.3 Contracting 2.2.4 Adaptation 2.2.5 Release Strategies 2.3 Discovery and Dynamics 2.3.1 Search 2.3.2 Bose-Einstein Distribution 2.3.3 Other Models 2.4 Revenue Distributions 2.4.1 Data 2.4.2 Revenue Concentration 2.4.3 Rank and Revenue 2.4.4 Revenue Distribution Dynamics 2.4.5 Identifying the Dynamic 2.5 Explaining the Industry 2.5.1 Launching the Opening 2.5.2 Adaptive Contracting 2.5.3 Admission Pricing 2.5.4 Rentals 2.5.5 Decentralisation 2.6 Conclusions 3. The Breakdown of Herding 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Information and Demand Dynamics 3.3 The Model 3.4 Estimates 3.5 The Stable Paretian Model 3.6 Bifurcation 3.6.1 Path to Equilibrium 3.6.2 Correlations 3.7 Results 3.8 Conclusions Part 2. "Wild" Uncertainty, Tough Decisions and False Beliefs 4. Uncertainty and Stars 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Related Literature 4.2.1 Motion Picture Uncertainty 4.2.2 Stars 4.2.3 Pareto and Levy Distributions 4.3 Modelling Star Power 4.3.1 Modelling Probability Mass 4.3.2. Risk and Survival 4.4 The Movie Data 4.4.1 Sources 4.4.2 The Run 4.4.3 Revenues, Budgets and Profits 4.5 Estimation Results 4.5.1 Revenue Concentration 4.5.2 Opening and Staying Power 4.5.3 Pareto Distribution 4.5.4 The Probability of a Hit 4.5.5 Stars and Hits 4.5.6 Stars and Profit 4.6 'Greenlighting' Movies 4.7 Conclusions 5. Does Hollywood Make Too Many R-rated Movies? 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Production 5.3 'Greenlighting' 5.4 Ranking by Success Rates 5.4.1 Box Office Revenue Success Rates 5.4.2 Return on Production Cost Success Rates 5.5 Ranking by Stochastic Dominance 5.5.1 Revenues 5.5.2 Production Budgets 5.5.3 Rates of Return 5.5.4 Profits and Losses 6. Openings, Legs and Blockbusters 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Cascades 6.3 Performance Statistics 6.4 Modelling the Box Office 6.4.1 Budgets 6.4.2 Sequels 6.4.3 Opening Screens 6.4.4 Genre and Rating 6.4.5 Stars 6.5 Conclusions Part 3. Judges, Lawyers and the Movies 7. Motion Picture Antitrust 7.1 Motion Picture Economics 101 7.1.1 Discovering Demand 7.1.2 Determining Supply 7.1.3 Structuring Incentives 7.1.4 Contracts 7.2 The Feature Motion Picture 7.3 Integration and Licensing 7.3.1 Admission Prices 7.3.2 Runs and Clearance 7.3.3 Exotic Deals 7.3.4 Block Booking and Blind Selling 7.3.5 Integration and Contracts 7.4 The Courts' Analyses 7.4.1 Bidding for Licenses 7.4.2 Controlling the First Run 7.4.3 Leveraging Monopoly 7.5 Paramount's Effects 7.6 Conclusions 8. Paramount and the Stock Market 8.1 Introduction 8.2 The Studio System 8.3 The Paramount Litigation 8.4 Stock Prices 8.5 Was a Cartel Feasible? 8.6 Winners and Losers 8.7 Conclusions 9. Stochastic Market Structure 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Market Power 9.3 Motion Pictures in the Era of Paramount 9.4 Instability 9.5 Turnover of Leaders 9.6 Standard Models are Wrong 9.7 The HHI Does Not Exist 9.8 Conclusions Part 4. A Business of Extremes 10. Profit and the Curse of the Superstar 10.1 Introduction 10.2 The Stable Hypothesis 10.3 Profit 10.4 The Stable Distribution 10.5 Estimation 10.6 Stable Probabilities 10.7 Nobody Knows 10.8 Superstars and Profit 10.9 Averages 10.10 The Curse of the Superstar 10.11 Success Breeds Success 10.12 The Angel's Nightmare 10.13 Contracting 10.14 Conclusions 11. Artists 11.1 Introduction 11.2 On Becoming a Superstar 11.3 Artists and Kurtosis 11.4 Career Expectations and Opportunities 11.5 Luck or Talent? 11.6 Competing for Stars 11.7 Artist Contracts 11.8 Pay When You Do Know 11.9 Director Contracts 11.10 Conclusions 12. Extreme Uncertainty 12. 1 Introduction 12.2 Complex Systems 12.2.1 Chaos 12.2.2 Complexity 12.3 Universality 12.4 Deep Order 12.4.1 Increasing Returns to Information 12.4.2 Nobody Knows 12.4.3 Dominance of Extreme Events 12.4.4 Self-similarity 12.4.5 Runs, Legs and Chaos 12.5 Complexity and the Stable Paretian Distribution Epilogue: Managing when "Nobody Knows Anything" 12.6 Probabilities 12.7 Inside and Outside the Studio 12.8 Risk and Decision Bias 12.9 Narrow Framing and Sure Things 12.10 Financing Movies 12.11 Causality and Kim Basinger 12.12 A Skeptical Attitude

The simple way to lose weight, look younger and feel healthier - without restricting calories or excessive exercising The New Evolution Diet is Professor Arthur De Vany's astonishing lifestyle programme. Based on his decades-long study of weight loss, diet and health, it looks to our ancestors' lifestyle of eating a lot and moving a little. With fascinating insight and research, De Vany overturns our current guilt-ridden approach to diet and exercise, proving that we can lose pounds, look younger, beat diabetes and prevent heart disease simply by living on meat, fruit and vegetables, and embarking on only brief, intense periods of exercise. He then offers a clear plan, complete with menu ideas and exercise suggestions, so that you too can: *Lose weight in a matter of weeks *Say goodbye to endless exercise *Feel more energized *Give up command-and-control diets for good *Look younger and prevent premature ageing *Increase your sex drive *Achieve optimum health

Believe it or not, our DNA is almost exactly the same as that of our ancestors. While scientific advances in agriculture, medicine, and technology have protected man, to some degree, from dangers such as starvation, illness, and exposure, the fact remains that our cave-dwelling cousins were considerably healthier than we are. Our paleolithic ancestors did not suffer from heart disease, diabetes, high blood pressure, or obesity. In fact, a good deal of what we view as normal aging is a modern condition that is more akin to disease than any natural state of growing older.
Our predecessors were incomparably better nourished than we are, and were incredibly physically fit. And certainly none of them ever craved a doughnut, let alone tasted one. In fact, the human preference for sweet tastes and fatty textures was developed in an environment where such treats were rare, and signaled dense, useful energy. This once-helpful adaptation is the downfall of many a dieter today. It's what makes it hard to resist fats and sweets, especially when they are all around us.
We are not living as we were built to live. Our genes were forged in an environment where activity was mandatory--you were active or you starved or were eaten. This created strong selective pressure for genes encoding a smart, physically adept individual capable of very high activity levels. Humans are among the most active of species, and we carry energetically expensive brains to boot. Our energy expenditures rank high among all animals. At least they once did. "" "The New Evolution Diet" is a roadmap back to the better health our ancestors once enjoyed. By eliminating modern foods, including carbohydrates, dairy, and all processed foods from our diets, we can undo much of the damage caused by our modern food environment. The plan is based on three simple principles:
1. Enjoy the pleasure of food and do not count or restrict calories. Eat three satisfying meals a day filled with non-starchy vegetables, fruits, and high-quality, lean proteins
2. Do not starve yourself, but do go hungry episodically, for brief periods, to promote a low fasting blood insulin level and increase metabolic fat-burning.
3. Exercise less, not more, but with more playfulness and intensity. The goal is to create a strong body with a high resting metabolism and a large physiologic capacity to move through life easily--not to burn calories.