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Since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, East Asia has implemented a
number of initiatives designed to strengthen monetary and financial
cooperation, bolstering the region's resilience to economic and
financial vulnerabilities. One such initiative is the ASEAN & 3
Information Exchange and Policy Dialogue, which includes
development of early warning systems (EWS) for financial crises.
This book examines efforts to develop EWS models. Specifically, the
book analyses the current understanding of the causes of currency
and banking crises, describes recent progress in developing and
applying EWS models for currency and banking crises, reviews
methodological isues, assesses the predictive power of EWS models
and also highlights areas where further research is required to
make these models more effective tools for policy analysis. The
case studies apply both parametric and nonparametric approaches to
EWS modeling using data from six East Asian countries.
Since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, countries in East Asia have
made efforts to promote regional monetary and financial cooperation
to complement the evolving international financial architecture.
This increased interest in regional monetary and financial
cooperation has resulted in several initiatives - the ASEAN
Surveillance Process, the ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers Process
including its Chiang Mai Initiative of 2000, the Manila Framework
Group and the Asia-Europe Finance Ministers Process to name a few.
These developments in some ways represent a significant break from
the past. Going forward the key challenge is how to set priorites
and sequence developments so as to smooth the path to a new
regional financial architecture. This two-volume set takes up the
issue of developing a road map of policy options, both at the
regional and country levels, for carrying forward the ongoing
efforts in monetary and financial cooperation in East Asia.
Building on a series of core reports and background papers by
eminent economists and policymakers around the world commissioned
under an ADB technical assistance project, the books explore what
is feasible and desirable in regional monetary and financial
cooperation and lays out a road map for putting the concept into
action over the next several years. Volume 1 contains an overview
by Peter Montiel, and three core studies by Olam Chaipravat, Eric
Girardin, and Takatoshi Ito and Yung-Chul Park. Volume 2 contains
background papers by Robert J. Barro; Elbliog'onore Boiscuvier and
Alfred Steinherr; Barry Eichengreen; Jeffrey A. Frankel; Eric
Girardin; Jong-Wha Lee; Yung-Chul Park and Kwanho Shin; Ronald
McKinnon; Eiji Ogawa, Takatoshi Ito, and YuriNagataki Sasaki;
Ramkishen Rajan and Reza Siregar; Yunjong Wang and Wing Thye Woo;
and Charles Wyplosz. The volumes and the study on which they were
based were conceptualized, supervised, and coordinated by Pradumna
B. Rana and Srinivasa Madhur.
This book explains how rapid digitalization during COVID-19 has
accelerated the growth of digital services trade in Asia and the
Pacific, and provides analysis on the opportunities, challenges,
and associated risks. It explores evolving trends and considers
trade agreements, cybersecurity, and effective taxation. It
outlines how a greater focus on developing human capital,
connectivity, investment in information and communication
technology, and a positive regulatory environment can help digital
services thrive. By underscoring the principal drivers and
policies, it aims to build a better understanding of digital
services to guide policy makers as they undertake domestic reforms
designed to reduce the digital divide.
Provides a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic issues in
developing Asia, including economic growth projections and
prospects by country and region. This year's theme chapter explores
how to strengthen disaster resilience.
This publication identifies investment approaches, opportunities,
and finance mechanisms in Southeast Asia that can promote and
catalyze funds for a sustainable ocean economy. It provides an
overview of the "blue economy"" and emphasizes its significance for
protecting the biodiversity of natural resources in Southeast Asia.
The "blue economy" is defined as the sustainable use of ocean and
coastal resources to drive economic growth and improve livelihoods,
while protecting and nurturing marine ecosystems. The publication
looks how multilateral and bilateral funding sources, a
market-based approach, incentives, and regulations can contribute
to achieving a blue economy. It also discusses how these elements
need to be aligned within a cohesive development framework.
This publication examines tourism in Asia and the Pacific, the
impacts on it of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, and
how it might be reset to contribute more effectively to the
Sustainable Development Goals. The report highlights six pathways
for promoting systemic change in the sector: a value-driven
approach, decarbonization, tourism-led regeneration, improved
governance, and sustainable finance. It provides concrete
recommendations on how policymakers and industry stakeholders can
leverage tourism to foster sustainable development and a green
recovery in Asia and the Pacific.
This publication highlights short-term actions that can mitigate
pressures and medium-term policy considerations for finance sector
resilience in the post-COVID-19 period. The guidance note examines
the effects of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on real economies
and the measures taken to ease the impact. It notes risks to
financial stability, such as an anticipated rise in nonperforming
assets. Its recommendations include establishing a framework for
epidemic risk financing, buttressing financial stability and
macroprudential measures, developing insurance markets for risk
sharing and transfer solutions, improving SME financing, and
fostering digital transformation.
This publication assesses the Government of Bhutan's financial
relief measures for the most affected people, as well as programs
and other interventions to address the impact of the coronavirus
disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The strategic thrust of interventions
for the sector is based on striking the right balance between the
immediate need to engage the economically displaced while
simultaneously initiating major reforms and investments for a
sustainable reopening.
The Pacific region is expected to contract by 0.6% in 2021, and to
grow by 4.7% in 2022. This issue of the Pacific Economic Monitor
explores how the region can reopen and rebuild. Besides safely
resuming travel and protecting health, a resilient recovery will
depend on promoting fiscal sustainability and strengthening
economic management, including regional cooperation to revitalize
tourism.
This report explores how regional cooperation and integration (RCI)
can be enhanced in Asia and the Pacific to help the region build
back resiliently and sustainably from the coronavirus disease
(COVID-19) pandemic. The report reflects on lessons learned from
efforts to tackle the pandemic through regional cooperation and
integration. It provides insights on how region-wide solidarity can
be enhanced with the support of multilateral development banks in
areas such as trade and investment, connectivity infrastructure,
people's mobility, regional public goods, and policy cooperation.
The report was jointly prepared by the ADB, the Asian
Infrastructure Investment Bank, the European Bank for
Reconstruction and Development, the Islamic Development Bank, and
the World Bank Group.
This publication provides updates on the bond market in Indonesia
since 2017. The ASEAN+3 Bond Market Guide series provides
information on the investment climate, rules, laws, opportunities,
and characteristics of bond markets in Asia and the Pacific. It
aims to help bond market issuers, investors, and financial
intermediaries understand the local context and encourage greater
participation in the region's rapidly developing bond markets. This
edition updates the ASEAN+3 Bond Market Guide 2017: Indonesia.
This edition sets out recent developments in East Asian local
currency bond markets and discusses the region's economic outlook,
the risk of another taper tantrum, and price differences between
labeled and unlabeled green bonds. Emerging East Asia's local
currency (LCY) bond markets expanded to an aggregate USD21.7
trillion at the end of September 2021, posting growth of 3.4%
quarter-on-quarter, up from 2.9% in the previous quarter. LCY bond
issuance rose 6.8% quarter-on-quarter to USD2.4 trillion in Q3
2021. Sustainable bond markets in ASEAN+3 also continued to expand
to reach a size of USD388.7 billion at the end of September.
This report examines the impacts of COVID-19 on labour markets
along with adjustment patterns in Indonesia, Malaysia, the
Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Labour markets in Southeast
Asia were particularly hit hard in 2020 when government pandemic
containment measures were most severe. COVID-19 exacerbated growing
inequalities in the region and exposed large gaps in social
protection . This report aims to help policymakers identify
priorities, constraints, and opportunities for developing effective
labour market strategies for economic recovery and beyond.
This report forecasts growth in developing Asia of 7.1% in 2021 and
5.4% in 2022 in an uneven recovery caused by divergent growth
paths. Its theme chapter explores sustainable agriculture. Growth
forecasts are revised up for East Asia and Central Asia from the
projections made in April, but down for South Asia, Southeast Asia,
and the Pacific. This reflects differences in vaccination progress
and control of domestic COVID-19 outbreaks but also other factors,
including rising commodity prices and depressed tourism. Inflation
is expected to remain under control. The main risks to the economic
outlook come from the COVID-19 pandemic, including the emergence of
new variants, slower-than-expected vaccine rollouts, and waning
vaccine effectiveness. Sustainable food production and agricultural
systems that are resilient to climate change will be crucial for
developing Asia. To transform agriculture in the region, its
economies must tackle challenges from changing consumer demand,
changing demographics, and a changing and more fragile environment.
The Asia Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Monitor provides data
and analysis as a resource for evidence-based policy design. This
year's edition focuses on South Asia. This first volume reviews
micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) at the country
and regional levels. It covers Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan,
and Sri Lanka, and examines MSME development, access to finance,
and policies and regulations. It notes that revitalizing MSMEs by
channeling more growth capital to them will be key to a resilient
economic recovery from the pandemic. It highlights opportunities in
formalizing MSMEs and connecting them to international markets,
expanding digital skills, fostering technology-based start-ups, and
supporting youth and women entrepreneurs.
This strategy outlines a regional approach for advancing gender
equality and women's empowerment in the Greater Mekong Subregion
(GMS). The six GMS countries share common challenges and issues
that prevent women from fully benefiting from economic
opportunities. Many of these challenges have been further
exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The strategy identifies
strategic directions and key entry points to mainstream gender
across all operational areas of the GMS Economic Cooperation
Program. It has been designed to add value to the GMS Program
Strategic Framework 2030 and to complement national initiatives of
the GMS countries to bolster gender equality.
This publication draws on findings from a survey on the green bond
market in Malaysia to provide insights on what support is needed to
further develop the country's sustainable finance market. The
survey assessed the interest of institutional investors in green
bond issuances in Malaysia. It helped identify drivers and
impediments for the development of country's sustainable finance
market, as well as priority areas in which ADB and other
development partners could provide support.
This publication shows how ADB continues to explore new ways to
deepen its relationship with civil society organizations (CSOs) and
increase the impact of its development projects in South Asia.
Drawing on comprehensive data, it emphasizes how meaningful CSO
involvement throughout the lifecycle of a development project helps
ensure ADB's schemes are more organized and better designed to
generate positive outcomes. Underlining the value of meaningful CSO
engagement, the publication calls for empowering civil society to
harness their specialist knowledge and engage them in policy
dialogue that can help build a resilient future in Asia and the
Pacific.
This publication explores how a local currency government bond
market can strengthen economic recovery from COVID-19. It focuses
on the Lao People's Democratic Republic, which faces many
challenges shared by other developing countries. It examines how
the Lao PDR can benefit from the experiences of its neighbors in
the Asian Bond Markets Initiative and highlights the essential
building blocks for developing an efficient government bond market
with sound cash and debt management.
This publication shares the results of a survey to help identify
drivers, impediments, and priorities for Indonesia's sustainable
finance market to inform support for its development. The survey
assessed institutional investors' interest in green bonds issued in
Indonesia and explored the perspectives of local arrangers and
underwriters on their clients' interest in green bond issuances.
The findings serve as a resource to inform action to accelerate the
market's development. The publication was prepared in collaboration
with the Global Green Growth Institute.
This thematic chapter shows how the Russian invasion of Ukraine and
related sanctions are affecting micro, small, and medium-sized
enterprises (MSMEs) in Central and West Asia and suggests policy
responses to mitigate the impact. It draws on the results of
business surveys in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the
Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan carried out six months
after the start of the invasion. It assesses the invasion's
macroeconomic impact, outlines its effect on global supply chains,
and explores MSME responses. Highlighting how countries are
converting risks into opportunities, it notes that strengthening
domestic commodity markets and increasing digitalization and
available capital could help make MSMEs more resilient.
This report shows how the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao
PDR) can leverage its regional position to boost trade, increase
agriculture, and harness the power of its cities to promote
inclusive and equitable growth. Analyzing the Lao PDR's production
and trading structure, it details the Greater Mekong Subregion's
plan to improve competitiveness, community, and connectivity in
order to converge income and living standards between members.
Outlining the need for structural transformation, it discusses the
potential for the Lao PDR to upgrade its value chain positioning,
diversify its industries, and capitalize on regional cooperation to
achieve its development targets.
This issue explores how Pacific developing member countries can
strengthen their post-pandemic social protection systems to help
address long-standing development concerns and boost resilience to
further shocks. It assesses individual countries' economies and
outlines ways they could improve their social protection systems,
despite depleted resources. Exploring megatrends facing the
subregion, including population ageing and migration, it shows how
investing in universal social protection policies can have a
long-term impact on reducing poverty, vulnerability, and social
exclusion.
This publication describes how state-owned enterprises (SOEs) can
access finance on commercial terms, without sovereign guarantees.
Doing so can create fiscal space for governments and new sources of
finance for important investments. ADB is committed to SOE reform
that supports access to commercial finance in its developing member
countries, as also emphasized in Strategy 2030. With the rise of
commercial finance for SOEs, this publication details the steps to
enhance the bankability of SOEs. It also explains how the risks of
such borrowing, including defaults and moral hazards created by
implicit guarantees, can be managed.
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