"The services industries-which include jobs ranging from flipping hamburgers to providing investment advice-can no longer be characterized, as they have in the past, as a stagnant sector marked by low productivity growth. They have emerged as one of the most dynamic and innovative segments of the U.S. economy, now accounting for more than three-quarters of gross domestic product. During the 1990s, 19 million additional jobs were created in this sector, while growth was stagnant in the goods-producing sector. Here, Jack Triplett and Barry Bosworth analyze services sector productivity, demonstrating that fundamental changes have taken place in this sector of the U.S. economy. They show that growth in the services industries fueled the post-1995 expansion in the U.S. productivity and assess the role of information technology in transforming and accelerating services productivity. In addition to their findings for the services sector as a whole, they include separate chapters for a diverse range of industries within the sector, including transportation and communications, wholesale and retail trade, and finance and insurance. The authors also examine productivity measurement issues, chiefly statistical methods for measuring services industry output. They highlight the importance of making improvements within the U.S. statistical system to provide the more accurate and relevant measures essential for analyzing productivity and economic growth. "

Longtime Brookings economist and former presidential adviser Barry Bosworth examines why saving rates in the United States have fallen so precipitously over the past quarter century, why the initial consequences were surprisingly benign, and how reduced saving will affect the future well-being of Americans.

"The Decline in Saving" provides an extensive and unparalleled account of the complexity of present saving patterns, an issue made even more serious by the 2008?09 global economic and financial crises. It objectively examines saving at both the individual household and the aggregate economy levels to understand whether the U.S. decline in saving is truly a threat to American prosperity.

Highlights from "The Decline in Saving:

""The magnitude of the two-decade-long fall in household saving has been truly astonishing; it is even more surprising in view of the fact that the large cohort of baby boomers should have been in their peak saving years."

"If Americans save so little, why are they so rich? This divergence emerges because the conventional measure of saving excludes all forms of capital gains...."

"Saving behavior appears to be influenced in important ways by country-specific institutional factors along with a few common determinants, such as income growth, demographic changes, and variations in private wealth."

"In the aggregate, the United States has had a negative net national saving rate since the onset of the financial crisis, and it now relies on foreign resource inflows to finance all its capital accumulation and a portion of its consumption."

"The optimistic projections of just a few years ago about the future well-being of retirees now seem seriously dated."

"As a territory of the United States, Puerto Rico enjoys the benefits of key U.S. legal, monetary, security, and tariff systems, and its residents are U.S. citizens. In the decades following World War II, Puerto Rico emerged as one of the world's fastest-growing economies. From 1950 to 1970 per capita income nearly doubled as a percentage of the U.S. average, making the island the richest economy in Latin America. Since the mid-1970s, however, labor force attachment has declined, economic growth has slowed, and the island's living standards have fallen further behind those on the mainland. Today more than half of all Puerto Rican children live below the U.S. poverty level. Why did Puerto Rico's economic progress stall? And more important, what can be done to restore growth? A number of overlapping concerns-labor supply and demand, entrepreneurship, the fiscal situation, financial markets, and trade--are at the heart of its economic difficulties. This is a companion volume to Restoring Growth: The Economy of Puerto Rico (Brookings, 2006), in which economists from Puerto Rico and the United States examine the island's economy and propose strategies for sustainable growth. This monograph summarizes the analyses published in that volume and presents a set of policy recommendations to increase employment, improve education, upgrade infrastructure, and fix government finances. Contributors include James Alm (Georgia State University), Barry P. Bosworth and Gary Burtless (Brookings Institution), Susan M. Collins (Brookings Institution and Georgetown University), Steven J. Davis (University of Chicago), Maria E. Enchautegui, Juan Lara, Luis A. Rivera- Batiz, and Orlando Sotomayor (University of Puerto Rico), Richard B. Freeman and Robert Z. Lawrence (Harvard University), Helen F. Ladd (Duke University), Rita Maldonado-Bear and Ingo Walter (New York University), Francisco L. Rivera-Batiz (Columbia University), and Miguel A. Soto-Class (Center for the New Economy). "

The Uruguay Round trade agreement, recently ratified by Congress, was the eighth in a series of negotiations under the auspices of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). Like the ratification proceddings, the negotiations were both contentious and extended. In the end, they substantially changed the structure of the GATT. From its traditional emphasis on reducing formal barriers to trade in goods, the GATT has now moved to a broader agenda of issues that will dominate in a more integrated world economy. The new GATT encompasses a set of agreements governing trade in goods, trade in services, the protection of intellectual property rights, and new procedures for resolving trade disputes. All of these measures are to be unified under a new institutional structure, the World Trade Organization. In this book, the major features of the new GATT are reviewed and assessed in terms of their implications for the United States. The contributors are Alan Deardorff, University of Michigan; Bernard Hoekman, the World Bank; John Jackson, University of Michigan School of Law; and Tim Josling, Food Research Institute, Stanford University. Susan M. Collins is a senior fellow in the Economic Studies program at Brookings and associate professor of economics at Georgetown University. Barry P. Bosworth, a senior fellow at Brookings, is the editor and author of numerous Brookings books, including The Chilean Economy: Policy Lessons and Challenges (Brookings, 1994) and Saving and Investment in a Global Economy (Brookings, 1993).

"The proposed North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) represents a historic change in relations among Canada, Mexico, and the United States. The effect of the agreement on the three economies has generated controversy and some degree of alarm within each country. In this book, noted trade and development experts review the available literature on the effects of NAFTA on the three member countries and the world trading system. They evaluate how NAFTA will affect areas such as economic growth, employment, income distribution, industry, and agriculture in Canada, Mexico, and the United States; and consider the significance the trade agreement holds for the rest of the world. Drusill K. Brown begins the discussion by providing an overview and comparison of the general results from recent studies. Raul Hinojosa-Ojeda and Sherman Robinson explore in greater detail the potential effects of NAFTA on wages and employment in Mexico and the United States. Sidney Wintrab reviews industry-specific effects of NAFTA, in particular, the environment, the social agenda, and human rights and democracy. Finally, Carlos Alberto Primo Braga considers the implications of NAFTA on the rest of the world. Following each of these chapters, international scholars assess the alternatives and provide recommendations for future research. "

Examines the effects of rising social security costs and of measures adopted to deal with them, and discusses possible ways of coping with the shortfall of available money for the aging American population.

The Economics of Federal Credit Programs discusses government lending, government guaranty of loans, and credit control in the United States.

The sharp decline in U.S. productivity growth in the 1970s has brought about a renewed interest in economic policies to expand aggregate supply. Particular importance has been given to the role played by government intervention in the form of taxes, transfer payments, and regulation. This volume asks just what is known about the effect of government policy on the productive capacity of the nation. It also looks at the role played by capital formation, technological change, and the quality of the work force.

Persistently large external imbalances in the world economy contributed to the outbreak of the recent financial crisis. The current account imbalances were particularly severe among the economies that border on the Pacific --the United States ran large deficits, with offsetting surpluses in East Asia. The depth and breadth of the global recession also demonstrated the need for a coordination of national policies to achieve a sustained recovery.

While the magnitude of global-trade disruption led to some reduction in the size of the imbalances, closer examination suggests that the progress may prove temporary. On the other hand, significant changes in the underlying patterns of saving and investment suggest that some of the recent rebalancing may prove to be more permanent. Are such imbalances really a problem? If so, why and for whom? What should be done about them --if anything --and what does the future likely hold for transpacific trade relations? In this timely book, Asian and American economists explore those important questions.

Copublished with the Asian Development Bank Institute, "Transpacific Rebalancing" is coedited by Barry Bosworth --long one of the Brookings Institution's leading economic analysts --and Masahiro Kawai, dean of the ADBI. They brought together leading economists from either side of the Pacific to analyze such issues as:

- The impact of exchange rates

- The policy choices facing the "Asian tigers"

- The specifics and effects of trade imbalances in specific countries including the United States, South Korea, Thailand, India, and China

Contributors include Hwee Kwan Chow, Susan M. Collins, Barry Eichengreen, Joonkyung Ha, Yping Huang, Ginalyn Komoto, Jong-Wha Lee, Rajiv Kumar, Deunden Nikomborirak, Gisela Rua, Lea Sumulong, Chalongphob Sussankam, Kunyu Tao, Willem Thorbecke, and Pankaj Vashisht.

By 2030, when most American baby boomers will have retired, all the large industrial economies will see a massive increase in the old age population. This book examines population aging and its implications for public retirement programs in the five largest industrial economies--Britain, France, Germany, Japan, and the United States. The authors report on national demographic trends, examine the current living conditions of the aged population, explain the structure of the retirement system, and offer estimates of future budgetary costs of the public programs. They also discuss national debates over the potential reform of public retirement systems.

While all five countries share the prospect of an older population, variations in the size and timing of demographic change, as well as important differences in the structure of public programs for the elderly, suggest that population aging will have widely different implications in each country. In Germany and Japan, for example, the population will not only grow older but may actually decline because of low birth rates. The United States will experience less aging, but its debate over reform treats seriously the possibility of privatizing public retirement commitments.

The signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was expected to signal the beginning of a new era of close co-operation between Mexico and the United States. Subsequent events, however, have introduced new tensions into the relationship. The 1995 economic collapse in Mexico sharply curtailed economic growth and lowered the demand for U.S. exports. The result has been a substantial deficit in U.S. trade with Mexico and renewed arguments that trade with Mexico reduces the employment opportunities of low-skilled workers in the United States. Immigration, both legal and illegal, has grown as a subject of contention between the two countries. Mexico has also come under increased focus as a conduit for the flow of drugs into the United States. In this book, scholars from the United States and Mexico examine the major elements of the bilateral relationship. The economic dimension is highlighted in two papers that focus on the effects of NAFTA on trade and financial transactions. The political and social dimensions are taken up in three papers on immigration, drug trafficking, and environmental concerns. The contributors include J. Enrique Espinosa and Pedro Noyola, SAI Consultores, Mexico; John Williamson, Institute for International Economics; Juan Carlos Belausteguigoitia, Ministry of the Environment, Mexico; Peter Smith, University of California, San Diego; and George Borjas, Harvard University.

The still chaotic states of the former Soviet Union, a growing China, and the divergent nations of Eastern Europe are striving to radically transform their economies. In their quest to become more integrated with the global economy, they are making historic changes to move toward market-based, private-enterprise systems. In this book, Barry P. Bosworth and Gur Ofer provide a balanced assessment of the progress of integration among the formerly centrally planned economies. So far, the results of the reform process range from amazing success in China to economic and political disarray in the states of the former Soviet Union. The authors outline the key issues that any successful reform program must address and the sequence in which these reforms should take place.

A volume of Brookings' Integrating National Economies Series

Should countries in Latin America and Eastern Europe follow the Chilean approach to economic restructuring, market liberalization, and stabilization? Following years of hyperinflation and domestic turmoil, Chile undertook a series of dramatic economic reforms. Chile has also served as a social laboratory for such policies as privatization and social security reform that are of interest to both developed and developing economies. Having implemented much of the original reform program and emerging in the 1990s with a new democratic government, Chile also raises interesting questions about what comes next in its policies to promote growth.

The advent in the 1990s of Chile as a model for economic reform is something of a surprise. Many of the reforms were actually introduced in the 1970s, and for a number of years many seemed to have failed to achieve their primary objectives. The more recent, positive view of the Chilean experience results from developments after 1983. Since then, the Chilean economy has grown robustly. What remains controversial is the question why the benefits of the reforms took so long to emerge.

In this book, international scholars review the reforms in Chile and assess their effectiveness. They evaluate stabilization policy, economic growth, privatization, reform of the social security system, and the politics of economic reform. Now that many of the original reforms have been largely completed, and Chile has maintained a coherent macroeconomic policy with slowly declining inflation, the authors prescribe what Chile must do to sustain growth in the future.

In addition to the editors, contributors include Eduardo Bitran, University of Chile; Vittorio Corbo, Catholic University of Chile; Peter Diamond, MIT; Sebastian Edwards, University of California, Los Angeles, and the World Bank; Stanley Fischer, MIT; Felipe Larrain B., Catholic University of Chile; Mario Marcel, IDB; Manuel Marf?n, CIEPLAN; Ra?l E. S?ez, CIEPLAN; Andr's Solimano, the World Bank; Andr's Velasco, New York University; and Salvador Vald?s-Prieto, Catholic University of Chile.

The emergence of large trade imbalances among the industrial countries during the 1980s-particularly the massive deficit of the United States and the surpluses of Germany and Japan-has led to growing disenchantment with the international economic system. But while many critics point to unfair trade practices as the cause of these imbalances, others contend that this emphasis is misplaced. In this provocative book by one of the nation's leading economists, Barry Bosworth argues that disparities are not the result of external infraction, but rather a reflection of domestic failures. He shows that the United States, for example, with its large government budget deficit and low rate of private saving, must borrow abroad to finance its investments. Similarly, trade surpluses of countries such as Japan reflect a surplus of national saving over domestic investment, rather than restrictive trade practices. Bosworth explains that large trade imbalances became possible in the 1980s because of the development of an international capital market that greatly reduced the barriers to borrowing and lending across national borders. The result is an international system in which national economies are closely linked through international capital markets as well as trade in goods and services. Using data from the major industrial countries, Bosworth highlights the process by which changes in domestic rates of saving and investment lead to changes in interest rates, exchange rates, and trade balances. He first examines why national saving and investment have fallen throughout the industrialized world. He then focuses on how exchange rates respond to trade imbalances, and considers whether the widefluctuations in exchange rates are a cause for concern or simply an integral part of the international adjustment to the divergent patterns of national saving and investment.