This book is based on the conference "EMU and the Outside World," held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), December 11, 1998. The conference was organized by the Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research (KOF), which is supported jointly by the ETH and the Swiss Society for Business Cycle Research (SGK), an organization comprising representatives from private industry, the Swiss National Bank and public authorities. On the eve of the final stage of European Economic and Mone tary Union (EMU), Zurich seemed to be a particularly appropriate place for such a conference. On the one hand, given its location and economic and financial links with the euro area, Switzerland is one of the "outside coun tries" most affected by EMU. On the other hand, it was nowhere else than in Zurich where the vision of "a United States of Europe" was expressed for the first time by Winston Churchill in his speech on September 19, 1946. For many EMU is a step in that direction, whether welcome or not. Most of the papers appearing in this volume were presented at the con ference and have been revised and updated. Three contributions, chapter 11- 13, were commissioned specially for this publication. Besides the authors of the chapters, special thanks are due to Guido Boller, Robert McCauley, Umberto Schwarz, and Charles Wyplosz."

This book is based on the conference "EMU and the Outside World," held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), December 11, 1998. The conference was organized by the Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research (KOF), which is supported jointly by the ETH and the Swiss Society for Business Cycle Research (SGK), an organization comprising representatives from private industry, the Swiss National Bank and public authorities. On the eve of the final stage of European Economic and Mone tary Union (EMU), Zurich seemed to be a particularly appropriate place for such a conference. On the one hand, given its location and economic and financial links with the euro area, Switzerland is one of the "outside coun tries" most affected by EMU. On the other hand, it was nowhere else than in Zurich where the vision of "a United States of Europe" was expressed for the first time by Winston Churchill in his speech on September 19, 1946. For many EMU is a step in that direction, whether welcome or not. Most of the papers appearing in this volume were presented at the con ference and have been revised and updated. Three contributions, chapter 11- 13, were commissioned specially for this publication. Besides the authors of the chapters, special thanks are due to Guido Boller, Robert McCauley, Umberto Schwarz, and Charles Wyplosz."

This monograph grew out of a project which was sponsored by the Swiss National Foundation ("Schweizerischer Nationalfonds") under grant no. 4. 636-0. 83. 09. Yithin this project, prediction-oriented estimation methods for the canonical econometric disequilibrium model were developed. The present monograph deals with the application of these estimation techniques to three aggregative markets of the Swiss economy. Parts of the monograph have been presented at various places: the estimation techniques described in chapter 3 at the European Meeting of the Econometric Society, Madrid 1984; the application to residential investment described in chapter 4 at a symposium on housing policy at the University of Mannheim, 1984; the empirical study on the money stock described in chapter 5 at the Symposium on Money, Banking and Insurance held at the University of Karlsruhe, 1984, as well as at a joint seminar of the University of Basle and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), 1985; and, finally, the empirical study on the aggregate labor market described in chapter 6 at a seminar of the University of ZUrich, 1985. Comments from toe seminar participants, in particular from Palle S. Andersen (BIS) who served as a discussant, Pascal Bridel (Swiss National Bank, SNB), Franz Ettlin (SNB), and Kurt Schiltknecht (Nordfinanz-Bank, Zurich) are gratefully acknowledged, without implying any responsibility on their part. The methodological part described in chapters 2 and 3 is contributed by G. Frei and B.

'If you give a man a fISh, he will have a single meal. If you teach him how to fish, he will eat all his life. ' Diese alte Weisheit ist das Motto dieses Einfiihrungskurses in die Methoden der empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung. Inhaltlich entspricht der Text einer fiir a11e Studierenden der Richtung Volkswirtschaftslehre obligatorischen vierstiin- digen Vorlesung mit mungen an der Hochschule St. Gallen. Wiinsche und Interessen der Horer sind ebenso in den Text eingeflossen wie die Erfahrun- gen mit denjenigen Studierenden, die a priori auch nicht die geringste Motiva- tion zeigen, sich mit den Methoden der empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung und insbesondere mit okonometrischen Modellen auseinanderzusetzen. Die Zielset- zung dieser Lehrveranstaltung ist es, die Studierenden insoweit mit Methoden der empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung und okonometrischen Modellen vertraut zu machen, dass sie zumindest in der Lage sind, Ergebnisse empirischer Forschung kritisch zu reflektieren. Es wird daher immer wieder versucht, den Teilnehmem an dieser Lehrveranstaltung die Moglichkeiten, aber auch die Grenzen empirischer Arbeiten aufzuzeigen. Dementsprechend werden die Diskussion grundsatzlicher Probleme und die Obungen an praktischen Beispie- len mehr betont als die Vermittlung technischer Fertigkeiten im Sinne einer okonometrischen Methodenlehre im Stile bewlihrter Lehrbiicher. Eine solche Vorgehensweise diirfte auch den veranderten Umweltbedingungen in der empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung - Zugang zu Datenbanken, Verfugbarkeit von leistungsflihigen Softwaresystemen, PC's am Arbeitsplatz der Studierenden usw. - mehr Rechnung tragen als die blosse Vermittlung methodischen VI Wissens. Die bisher vorliegenden Erfahrungen sprechen flir dieses Konzept. Mage auch der Leser dieses Textes davon profitieren.

EROFFNUNGSVORTRAGE 1 H. Konig Mathematik und Oekonomie 10 P. Stahly und B. Schips Ausrichtung der Hochschulausbildung auf die Entscheidungsproblematik der Wirtschaft und Verwaltung I. MATHEMATIK UND STATISTIK G. Bamberg 17 Einsatzmoglichkeiten von Bayes-Verfahren K. Ehemann 31 Statistische Entscheidungstheorie A. Jaeger 49 Die Mathematik in der Wirtschaftswissen- schaft - Eine Anwendung von Symbolen? H. Loeffel 80 Neuere Entwicklungen in der Entscheidungs- theorie bei Unsicherheit XII W. Sadowski 92 Forecasting and Decision-Making N. Schmitz 103 Einige Fehlerquellen bei Simulations- studien 114 W. Stier Neuere Ansatze in der Zeitreihenanalyse II. WIRTSCHAFTSTHEORIE UND OEKONOMETRIE G. Bol 129 Modelle der Mehrgtiterproduktion und spezielle Input- und Outputstrukturen W. Eichhorn 143 Wirtschaftliche Kennzahlen W. Grabowski 178 Optimization in Branches of a National Economy with Cobb-Douglas Production Functions 196 M. Gruszczynski Recent Developments in Econometric Model Building in Poland 217 R. Henn Nichtwalrasianische Gleichgewichte 232 G. Hieber Optimale Wachsturnspfade bei variabler Technologie 241 A. Karmann Raurnliche Oekonomien in der allgemeinen Gleichgewichts- theorie XIII 256 P. Kischka Stabilitat in Wachsturnsmodellen Ch. Marfels 271 Konzentrationsmessung und Marketingstruktur: Statistische Aussagekraft versus okonomische Anwendbarkeit K. Schiltknecht 286 Zur Anwendung okonometrischer Methoden in der schweizerischen Geldpolitik 298 B. Schips Aktuelle Informationen und strukturelle Modelle III. BETRIEBSWIRTSCHAFTSLEHRE UND OPERATIONS RESEARCH A. Adam 311 Zur Problematik der "weichen" Systeme W. Dinkelbach 330 Operations Research in entscheiduntstheo- retischer Sicht W. Gaul 347 Stichprobenplane und Marketinqprobleme H. Goppl 363 Neuere Entwicklungen der betriebswirtschaftlichen Kapitaltheorie P. Hammann 378 Operations Research irn Marketinq XIV G. Hammer 398 Graphentheorie - Modelle und Methoden 413 R.