Multiple complex pathways, characterized by interrelated events and c- ditions, represent routes to many illnesses, diseases, and ultimately death. Although there are substantial data and plausibility arguments suppo- ing many conditions as contributory components of pathways to illness and disease end points, we have, historically, lacked an e?ective method- ogy for identifying the structure of the full pathways. Regression methods, with strong linearity assumptions and data-basedconstraints onthe extent and order of interaction terms, have traditionally been the strategies of choice for relating outcomes to potentially complex explanatory pathways. However, nonlinear relationships among candidate explanatory variables are a generic feature that must be dealt with in any characterization of how health outcomes come about. It is noteworthy that similar challenges arise from data analyses in Economics, Finance, Engineering, etc. Thus, the purpose of this book is to demonstrate the e?ectiveness of a relatively recently developed methodology-recursive partitioning-as a response to this challenge. We also compare and contrast what is learned via rec- sive partitioning with results obtained on the same data sets using more traditional methods. This serves to highlight exactly where-and for what kinds of questions-recursive partitioning-based strategies have a decisive advantage over classical regression techniques.

Models to forecast changes in mortality, morbidity, and disability in elderly populations are essential to national and state policies for health and welfare programs. This volume presents a wide-ranging survey of the forecasting of health of elderly populations, including the modelling of the incidence of chronic diseases in the elderly, the differing perspectives of actuarial and health care statistics, and an assessment of the impact of new technologies on the elderly population. Amongst the topics covered are - uncertainties in projections from census and social security data and actuarial approaches to forecasting - plausible ranges for population growth using biol ogical models and epidemiological time series data - the financing of long term care programs - the effects of major disabling diseases on health expenditures - forecasting cancer risks and risk factors As a result, this wide-ranging volume will become an indispensable reference for all those whose research touches on these topics.