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This is an open access title available under the terms of a CC
BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licence. It is free to read at Oxford
Scholarship Online and offered as a free PDF download from OUP and
selected open access locations. Electoral Shocks: The Volatile
Voter in a Turbulent World offers a novel perspective on British
elections, focusing on the role of electoral shocks in the context
of increasing electoral volatility. It demonstrates and explains
the long-term trend in volatility, how shocks have contributed to
the level of electoral volatility, and also which parties have
benefited from the ensuing volatility. It follows in the tradition
of British Election Study books, providing a comprehensive account
of specific election outcomes- the General Elections of 2015 and
2017-and a more general and novel approach to understanding
electoral change. The authors examine five electoral shocks that
affected the elections of 2015 and 2017: the rise in immigration
after 2004, particularly from Eastern Europe; the Global Financial
Crisis prior to 2010; the coalition government of the Conservatives
and the Liberal Democrats between 2010 and 2015; the Scottish
Independence Referendum in 2014; and the European Union Referendum
in 2016. The focus on electoral shocks offers an overarching
explanation for the volatility in British elections, alongside the
long-term trends that have led to this point. It offers a way to
understand the rise and fall of the UK Independence Party (UKIP),
Labour's disappointing 2015 performance and its later unexpected
gains, the collapse in support for the Liberal Democrats, the
dramatic gains of the Scottish National Party (SNP) in 2015, and
the continuing period of tumultuous politics that has followed the
EU referendum and the General Election of 2017. It provides a new
way of understanding electoral choice in Britain, and also beyond,
and a better understanding of the outcomes of recent elections.
This book presents the most systematic and consistent study to date
of the 'consequences of context' for the process through which
citizens' decide on their electoral behaviour. It derives
contextual variation from cross-national and within-country
comparisons. The contextual dimensions investigated pertain to the
political, economic and social domains, and their impact is
investigated on the factors that drive citizens' decision to
participate in an election and on their subsequent decision which
party to vote for. The book thus focuses not on whether people vote
and for which party, but instead on more fundamental questions
about contextual effects on the determinants of electoral
participation and the vote. The analyses are based on an integrated
database of national election studies conducted in European
countries and utilises an innovative multi-level logistic
regression methodology. This methodology, elaborated in detail
early on and subsequently applied in each of the following
chapters, identifies the moderating effect, or the "consequences",
of altogether nine classes of different context conditions on
individual level determinants of electoral participation and party
choice.
This is an open access title available under the terms of a CC
BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licence. It is free to read at Oxford
Scholarship Online and offered as a free PDF download from OUP and
selected open access locations. Electoral Shocks: The Volatile
Voter in a Turbulent World offers a novel perspective on British
elections, focusing on the role of electoral shocks in the context
of increasing electoral volatility. It demonstrates and explains
the long-term trend in volatility, how shocks have contributed to
the level of electoral volatility, and also which parties have
benefited from the ensuing volatility. It follows in the tradition
of British Election Study books, providing a comprehensive account
of specific election outcomes- the General Elections of 2015 and
2017-and a more general and novel approach to understanding
electoral change. The authors examine five electoral shocks that
affected the elections of 2015 and 2017: the rise in immigration
after 2004, particularly from Eastern Europe; the Global Financial
Crisis prior to 2010; the coalition government of the Conservatives
and the Liberal Democrats between 2010 and 2015; the Scottish
Independence Referendum in 2014; and the European Union Referendum
in 2016. The focus on electoral shocks offers an overarching
explanation for the volatility in British elections, alongside the
long-term trends that have led to this point. It offers a way to
understand the rise and fall of the UK Independence Party (UKIP),
Labour's disappointing 2015 performance and its later unexpected
gains, the collapse in support for the Liberal Democrats, the
dramatic gains of the Scottish National Party (SNP) in 2015, and
the continuing period of tumultuous politics that has followed the
EU referendum and the General Election of 2017. It provides a new
way of understanding electoral choice in Britain, and also beyond,
and a better understanding of the outcomes of recent elections.
This book analyzes how the behavior of voters, parties, and the
mass media in European Parliament elections affects domestic
politics and how, in turn, domestic politics affects those
behaviors. The contributors discuss election turnout and party
choice, the contract between the European Parliament and national
elections, the importance of citizens' attitudes toward European
integration, the relationship between political parties' domestic
policies and their stances on European integration, and the ways in
which the mass media and election campaigns affect electoral
outcomes. On the basis of this information, the authors present
possible scenarios for future European elections and their
relationship to the domestic politics of the EU member-states. The
product of superb empirical research, European Elections and
Domestic Politics is based on a unique combination of data from
voter surveys, party manifestos, and mass media reports across all
members of the European Union. This book will be essential for
anyone interested in the future of the EU.
Economic conditions are said to affect election outcomes, but past
research has produced unstable and contradictory findings. This
book argues that these problems are caused by the failure to take
account of electoral competition between parties. A research
strategy to correct this problem is designed and applied to
investigate effects of economic conditions on (individual) voter
choices and (aggregate) election outcomes over 42 elections in 15
countries. It shows that economic conditions exert small effects on
individual party preferences, which can have large consequences for
election outcomes. In countries where responsibility for economic
policy is clear, voters vote retrospectively and reward or punish
incumbent parties - although in coalition systems smaller
government parties often gain at the expense of the largest party
when economic conditions deteriorate. Where clarity of
responsibility for economic policy is less clear, voters vote more
prospectively on the basis of expected party policies.
Economic conditions are said to affect election outcomes, but past
research has produced unstable and contradictory findings. This
book argues that these problems are caused by the failure to take
account of electoral competition between parties. A research
strategy to correct this problem is designed and applied to
investigate effects of economic conditions on (individual) voter
choices and (aggregate) election outcomes over 42 elections in 15
countries. It shows that economic conditions exert small effects on
individual party preferences, which can have large consequences for
election outcomes. In countries where responsibility for economic
policy is clear, voters vote retrospectively and reward or punish
incumbent parties - although in coalition systems smaller
government parties often gain at the expense of the largest party
when economic conditions deteriorate. Where clarity of
responsibility for economic policy is less clear, voters vote more
prospectively on the basis of expected party policies.
Voting is a habit. People learn the habit of voting, or not, based
on experience in their first few elections. Elections that do not
stimulate high turnout among young adults leave a 'footprint' of
low turnout in the age structure of the electorate as many
individuals who were new at those elections fail to vote at
subsequent elections. Elections that stimulate high turnout leave a
high turnout footprint. So a country's turnout history provides a
baseline for current turnout that is largely set, except for young
adults. This baseline shifts as older generations leave the
electorate and as changes in political and institutional
circumstances affect the turnout of new generations. Among the
changes that have affected turnout in recent years, the lowering of
the voting age in most established democracies has been
particularly important in creating a low turnout footprint that has
grown with each election.
Voting is a habit. People learn the habit of voting, or not, based
on experience in their first few elections. Elections that do not
stimulate high turnout among young adults leave a 'footprint' of
low turnout in the age structure of the electorate as many
individuals who were new at those elections fail to vote at
subsequent elections. Elections that stimulate high turnout leave a
high turnout footprint. So a country's turnout history provides a
baseline for current turnout that is largely set, except for young
adults. This baseline shifts as older generations leave the
electorate and as changes in political and institutional
circumstances affect the turnout of new generations. Among the
changes that have affected turnout in recent years, the lowering of
the voting age in most established democracies has been
particularly important in creating a low turnout footprint that has
grown with each election.
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