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Policy changes directly affect profitability for Texas crop
producers as government payments make up a sizeable portion of
their net farm income (NFI), but an economic model projecting NFI
for Texas crops previously did not exist. Developed in the
Agricultural & Food Policy Center at Texas A&M University,
the Texas crop model estimates state-level price, yields and
production costs to project annual NFI for the state's corn,
cotton, peanut, rice, sorghum, wheat and hay producers. Food &
Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) projections of U.S.
variables are used as input to the model, and stochastic simulation
incorporates the risk left unexplained by Ordinary Least Squares
equations relating Texas variables to U.S. variables to make the
NFI projections stochastic. NFI projections are compared under
alternative sets of FAPRI projections to show impacts of production
cost and commodity prices changes. Researchers in Risk Analysis,
Policy Analysis, or Production Economics will be interested in the
methodology used to develop the model, while NFI projections under
alterative baseline assumptions will be valuable to agricultural
producers, agribusinesses and policy makers.
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