Leverage the full power of Bayesian analysis for competitive advantage Bayesian methods can solve problems you can't reliably handle any other way. Building on your existing Excel analytics skills and experience, Microsoft Excel MVP Conrad Carlberg helps you make the most of Excel's Bayesian capabilities and move toward R to do even more. Step by step, with real-world examples, Carlberg shows you how to use Bayesian analytics to solve a wide array of real problems. Carlberg clarifies terminology that often bewilders analysts, and offers sample R code to take advantage of the rethinking package in R and its gateway to Stan. As you incorporate these Bayesian approaches into your analytical toolbox, you'll build a powerful competitive advantage for your organization-and yourself. Explore key ideas and strategies that underlie Bayesian analysis Distinguish prior, likelihood, and posterior distributions, and compare algorithms for driving sampling inputs Use grid approximation to solve simple univariate problems, and understand its limits as parameters increase Perform complex simulations and regressions with quadratic approximation and Richard McElreath's quap function Manage text values as if they were numeric Learn today's gold-standard Bayesian sampling technique: Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Use MCMC to optimize execution speed in high-complexity problems Discover when frequentist methods fail and Bayesian methods are essential-and when to use both in tandem

This is today's most complete guide to regression analysis with Microsoft (R) Excel for any business analytics or research task. Drawing on 25 years of advanced statistical experience, Microsoft MVP Conrad Carlberg shows how to use Excel's regression-related worksheet functions to perform a wide spectrum of practical analyses. Carlberg clearly explains all the theory you'll need to avoid mistakes, understand what your regressions are really doing, and evaluate analyses performed by others. From simple correlations and t-tests through multiple analysis of covariance, Carlberg offers hands-on, step-by-step walkthroughs using meaningful examples. He discusses the consequences of using each option and argument, points out idiosyncrasies and controversies associated with Excel's regression functions, and shows how to use them reliably in fields ranging from medical research to financial analysis to operations. You don't need expensive software or a doctorate in statistics to work with regression analyses. Microsoft Excel has all the tools you need-and this book has all the knowledge! Understand what regression analysis can and can't do, and why Master regression-based functions built into all recent versions of Excel Work with correlation and simple regression Make the most of Excel's improved LINEST() function Plan and perform multiple regression Distinguish the assumptions that matter from the ones that don't Extend your analysis options by using regression instead of traditional analysis of variance Add covariates to your analysis to reduce bias and increase statistical power

Gain Deeper Insights, Make Smarter Decisions, and Earn More Profits It's time to put the full power of Excel quantitative analysis behind your management decisions! Business analysis expert Conrad Carlberg shows you how to use Excel to perform core financial tasks all managers and entrepreneurs need to master: analyzing statements, planning and controlling company finances, making investment decisions, and managing sales and marketing. Carlberg helps you make the most of Excel's tools and features in everything from business case development to cash flow analysis. Becoming an Excel expert has never been easier. You'll find crystal-clear instructions, real-world examples, insider insights, step-by-step projects, and much more. It's all complemented by extensive web-based resources, from sample journals and ledgers to business forecasting tools. * Get more insight from income statements and balance sheets * Manage current assets and value inventories * Summarize transactions from journal to balance sheet * Analyze working capital, cash flow, statements, and ratios * Optimize budgeting and planning cycles * Make more accurate and useful forecasts and projections * Measure product or service quality * Plan investments, set decision criteria, and perform sensitivity analyses * Analyze profits, pricing, costs, contributions, and margins * Make better decisions in uncertain conditions * Understand and maximize the value of fixed assets * Efficiently import and export business data * Use Excel and Power BI to analyze data from QuickBooks or other sources