This book is about building platforms for pandemic prediction. It provides an overview of probabilistic prediction for pandemic modeling based on a data-driven approach. It also provides guidance on building platforms with currently available technology using tools such as R, Shiny, and interactive plotting programs. The focus is on the integration of statistics and computing tools rather than on an in-depth analysis of all possibilities on each side. Readers can follow different reading paths through the book, depending on their needs. The book is meant as a basis for further investigation of statistical modelling, implementation tools, monitoring aspects, and software functionalities. Features: A general but parsimonious class of models to perform statistical prediction for epidemics, using a Bayesian approach Implementation of automated routines to obtain daily prediction results How to interactively visualize the model results Strategies for monitoring the performance of the predictions and identifying potential issues in the results Discusses the many decisions required to develop and publish online platforms Supplemented by an R package and its specific functionalities to model epidemic outbreaks The book is geared towards practitioners with an interest in the development and presentation of results in an online platform of statistical analysis of epidemiological data. The primary audience includes applied statisticians, biostatisticians, computer scientists, epidemiologists, and professionals interested in learning more about epidemic modelling in general, including the COVID-19 pandemic, and platform building. The authors are professors at the Statistics Department at Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Their research records exhibit contributions applied to a number of areas of Science, including Epidemiology. Their research activities include books published with Chapman and Hall/CRC and papers in high quality journals. They have also been involved with academic management of graduate programs in Statistics and one of them is currently the President of the Brazilian Statistical Association.

This book is about building platforms for pandemic prediction. It provides an overview of probabilistic prediction for pandemic modeling based on a data-driven approach. It also provides guidance on building platforms with currently available technology using tools such as R, Shiny, and interactive plotting programs. The focus is on the integration of statistics and computing tools rather than on an in-depth analysis of all possibilities on each side. Readers can follow different reading paths through the book, depending on their needs. The book is meant as a basis for further investigation of statistical modelling, implementation tools, monitoring aspects, and software functionalities. Features: A general but parsimonious class of models to perform statistical prediction for epidemics, using a Bayesian approach Implementation of automated routines to obtain daily prediction results How to interactively visualize the model results Strategies for monitoring the performance of the predictions and identifying potential issues in the results Discusses the many decisions required to develop and publish online platforms Supplemented by an R package and its specific functionalities to model epidemic outbreaks The book is geared towards practitioners with an interest in the development and presentation of results in an online platform of statistical analysis of epidemiological data. The primary audience includes applied statisticians, biostatisticians, computer scientists, epidemiologists, and professionals interested in learning more about epidemic modelling in general, including the COVID-19 pandemic, and platform building. The authors are professors at the Statistics Department at Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Their research records exhibit contributions applied to a number of areas of Science, including Epidemiology. Their research activities include books published with Chapman and Hall/CRC and papers in high quality journals. They have also been involved with academic management of graduate programs in Statistics and one of them is currently the President of the Brazilian Statistical Association.

A Balanced Treatment of Bayesian and Frequentist Inference Statistical Inference: An Integrated Approach, Second Edition presents an account of the Bayesian and frequentist approaches to statistical inference. Now with an additional author, this second edition places a more balanced emphasis on both perspectives than the first edition. New to the Second Edition New material on empirical Bayes and penalized likelihoods and their impact on regression models Expanded material on hypothesis testing, method of moments, bias correction, and hierarchical models More examples and exercises More comparison between the approaches, including their similarities and differences Designed for advanced undergraduate and graduate courses, the text thoroughly covers statistical inference without delving too deep into technical details. It compares the Bayesian and frequentist schools of thought and explores procedures that lie on the border between the two. Many examples illustrate the methods and models, and exercises are included at the end of each chapter.

While there have been few theoretical contributions on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in the past decade, current understanding and application of MCMC to the solution of inference problems has increased by leaps and bounds. Incorporating changes in theory and highlighting new applications, Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Stochastic Simulation for Bayesian Inference, Second Edition presents a concise, accessible, and comprehensive introduction to the methods of this valuable simulation technique. The second edition includes access to an internet site that provides the code, written in R and WinBUGS, used in many of the previously existing and new examples and exercises. More importantly, the self-explanatory nature of the codes will enable modification of the inputs to the codes and variation on many directions will be available for further exploration. Major changes from the previous edition: * More examples with discussion of computational details in chapters on Gibbs sampling and Metropolis-Hastings algorithms * Recent developments in MCMC, including reversible jump, slice sampling, bridge sampling, path sampling, multiple-try, and delayed rejection * Discussion of computation using both R and WinBUGS * Additional exercises and selected solutions within the text, with all data sets and software available for download from the Web * Sections on spatial models and model adequacy The self-contained text units make MCMC accessible to scientists in other disciplines as well as statisticians. The book will appeal to everyone working with MCMC techniques, especially research and graduate statisticians and biostatisticians, and scientists handling data and formulating models. The book has been substantially reinforced as a first reading of material on MCMC and, consequently, as a textbook for modern Bayesian computation and Bayesian inference courses.