Leading authorities analyze growing tensions in US-China relations and what this means for the future The US-China relationship is now defined by “strategic competition.” In Cold Rivals, a distinguished group of scholars from the United States and China examine the reasons for this deterioration and its implications for world politics. The two countries are now competitors locked in a long-term rivalry, but how volatile this rivalry will become is still to be determined. The book explores not only the historical roots and contemporary foreign policy aspects of this era, but also looks at the economic, military, and technological arenas of US-China strategic competition. In doing so, this volume highlights important differences in US and Chinese perspectives. A final section of the volume explores future scenarios for this relationship from a variety of perspectives, all coming to a sobering conclusion. This policy-relevant book provides a comprehensive overview of US-China strategic competition and reinvigorates thinking about how to avoid reaching a crisis point.

Leading authorities analyze growing tensions in US-China relations and what this means for the future The US-China relationship is now defined by “strategic competition.” In Cold Rivals, a distinguished group of scholars from the United States and China examine the reasons for this deterioration and its implications for world politics. The two countries are now competitors locked in a long-term rivalry, but how volatile this rivalry will become is still to be determined. The book explores not only the historical roots and contemporary foreign policy aspects of this era, but also looks at the economic, military, and technological arenas of US-China strategic competition. In doing so, this volume highlights important differences in US and Chinese perspectives. A final section of the volume explores future scenarios for this relationship from a variety of perspectives, all coming to a sobering conclusion. This policy-relevant book provides a comprehensive overview of US-China strategic competition and reinvigorates thinking about how to avoid reaching a crisis point.

Escalation is a natural tendency in any form of human competition, and today's security environment demands that the United States be prepared for a host of escalatory threats. This analysis of escalation dynamics and approaches to escalation management draws on a range of historical examples from World War I to the struggle against global Jihad to inform escalation-related decisionmaking.

"Reluctant Restraint" examines one of the most important changes in Chinese foreign policy since the country opened to the world: China's gradual move to support the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, missiles, and their related goods and technologies. Once a critic of the global nonproliferation regime, China is now a supporter of it, although with some reservations. Medeiros analyzes how and why Chinese nonproliferation policies have evolved so substantially since the early 1980s. He argues that U.S. diplomacy has played a significant and enduring role in shaping China's gradual recognition of the dangers of proliferation, and in its subsequent altered behavior.

Since at least the early 1950s, the entire Asia-Pacific region has struggled with the complicated and complex relationship between China and Taiwan -today the Taiwan question is considered a potential flashpoint for a much larger international conflict. Bringing together experts from the United States and Taiwan, Assessing the Threat provides a comprehensive look at the dangers of military escalation in the Taiwan Strait, the latest advances in capabilities of the People's Liberation Army, and China's security relationship with the United States and the Asia-Pacific. There is increasing concern that Beijing is steadily shifting the balance of power across the Taiwan Strait in its favor. Recent advances in Chinese air and naval power, along with changes in PLA doctrine, have the potential to weaken deterrence and destabilize the cross-strait military balance. At this critical juncture, there is not question that this issue requires sustained, detailed analysis and that many measures can and should be taken to reduce the threat of conflict between China, Taiwan, and the United States. Assessing the Threat offers such analysis as well as concrete suggestions and crisis management practices for government and military leaders in Washington, D.C., Beijing, and Taipei.

Global arms proliferation continues to be a key concern for the United States, particularly the export role of the People's Republic of China (PRC). Although China experienced a significant decline in its arms exports in the 1990s (down from the boom times of the 1980s), the PRC provides a significant array of lethal weapons and sensitive defense technologies to states around the world. These exports provide an invaluable means by which to assess the progress and performance of China's military-industrial complex. Moreover, these products may present the very systems and technological know-how that the United States and allied forces will encounter in a future conflict.

China is now a global actor of significant and growing importance. It is involved in regions and on issues that were once only peripheral to its interests, and it is effectively using tools previously unavailable. China's international behavior is clearly altering the dynamics of the current international system, but it is not transforming its structure. China's global activism is continually changing and has so many dimensions that it immediately raises questions about China's current and future intentions. This study provides a conceptual and empirical framework to assess these important trends. It examines how China views its security environment, how it defines its international objectives, how it is pursuing them, and the consequences for U.S. economic and security interests. For more than 60 years, decisionmakers in the public and private sectors have turned to the RAND Corporation for objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the nation and the world.

This report analyzes the individual strengths and weaknesses of China's defense industrial complex. It examines four specific defense-industrial sectors - missiles, aircraft, shipbuilding, and information technology. It argues that China's defense industry is gradually emerging from two and a half decades of neglect, inefficiency and corruption. As part of a larger RAND Project AIR FORCE study on Chinese military modernization, this document analyzes the individual strengths and weaknesses of four specific defense-industrial sectors - missile, aircraft, shipbuilding, and information technology - to explain variations in performance among those sectors, with a focus on differences in institutional arrangements, incentives, and exposure to market forces, and to evaluate the prospects for China's defense industry and its ability to contribute to military modernization.

Projects future growth in Chinese defense expenditures, evaluates the current and likely future capabilities of China's defense industries, and compares likely future defense expenditure levels with recent expenditures by the United States and the U.S. Air Force. Projects future growth in Chinese government expenditures as a whole and on defense in particular, evaluates the current and likely future capabilities of China's defense industries, and compares likely future expenditure levels with recent defense expenditures by the United States and the U.S. Air Force. The authors forecast that Chinese military spending is likely to rise from an estimated $69 billion in 2003 to $185 billion by 2025-approximately 61 percent of what the Department of Defense spent in 2003.

This book examines the structure and operation of the Chinese government's controls on exports of items that could be used in the production of weapons of mass destruction.