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Having long been stigmatized as an immoral and even illegal "superstition", the popular practice of divination is experiencing a revival in contemporary China. Fate Calculation Experts explores how diviners attempt to achieve legitimation in a society which identifies strongly with modernity, science, and rationality. As well as associating with modern knowledge production systems, diviners build a positive social image for their occupation via claims to moral authority and appeals to "tradition". Beyond matters of image management, diviners' efforts towards legitimation also figure in the social relationships and fundamental cultural values they develop in their practice.
Despite news reports suggesting a rise in 401(k) borrowing in recent years, we find that the share of eligible households with 401(k) loans in the 2007 Survey of Consumer Finances was about 15 percent, roughly what it has been since 1995. We find that the best predictors of 401(k) borrowing appear to be the presence of liquidity or borrowing constraints and the size of 401(k) balances relative to income. Since the ongoing financial crisis has likely caused these factors to move in opposite directions, the predicted effect of the crisis on 401(k) borrowing is ambiguous. More fundamentally, we find that many loan-eligible households carry relatively expensive consumer debt that could be more economically financed via 401(k) borrowing. In the aggregate, we estimate that such households could have saved as much as $5 billion in 2007 by shifting expensive consumer debt to 401(k) loans. This would translate into annual savings of about $275 per household-roughly 20 percent of their overall interest costs--with larger reductions for households that carry consumer debt at high interest rates or who hold larger 401(k) balances. We posit that households might utilize 401(k) loans less than expected due to risk-aversion, self-control problems, and confusion about the potential gains, and suggest better financial education that clarifies the conditions under which 401(k) borrowing is advantageous. Finally, we note that allowing households to repay 401(k) loans gradually even after separation from their employers could improve household welfare by reducing the risks of 401(k) borrowing.
Gambling behavior can serve as an informative indicator of important household heterogeneity that is difficult to observe directly in data. We present, to the best of our knowledge, the first comprehensive study of the consumption and personal finance of gamblers using a nationwide representative household survey. We find that consumers are more likely to gamble when income is higher than its normal level predicted by observable characteristics, and that nongambling expenditures tend to increase with gambling activities. In addition, gamblers are more likely to concurrently have various types of debt and assets, assuming a more active position on household balance sheets. However, gamblers do not necessarily have a higher net worth than comparable nongamblers. Gamblers also tend to engage in health-wise risky behaviors, such as smoking and heavy drinking, while paying out-of-pocket on life and health insurance. We present extensive evidence that such behavior differences observed in the data are not primarily due to different degrees of careless reporting to the survey. Rather, we argue that our findings are consistent with the notion that certain consumers, namely, the active participants in personal finance markets, take on gambling as a form of entertainment.
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