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The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) hosted
its sixth annual South China Sea conference in July 2016. The
conference provided four panels of highly respected experts from 10
countries with a first opportunity to assess the results of the UN
Convention on the Law of the Sea tribunal ruling and begin to
measure its impact. This report contains papers by 10 of the
panelists, providing a wide array of perspectives on the political,
legal, military, and environmental outlook for the South China Sea
in 2016.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) hosted
its fifth annual South China Sea conference in July 2015. This
compilation features papers from some of the top experts in the
United States and Asia, who presented during the day's panels. Bill
Hayton, Bonnie Glaser, and Wu Shicun discuss recent developments in
the South China Sea; Pham Lan Dung and Tran Huu Duy Minh explore
legal issues surrounding the disputes; and Ian Storey, Patrick
Cronin, Renato Cruz de Castro, and Peter Jennings examine various
aspects of the military balance and regional order.
With elections in both the Philippines and the United States in
2016, the future of the alliance must be institutionalized to
ensure that it is not diminished by a change of leadership in
either country. A new Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement and
cooperation in the South China Sea are important components of the
new era of relations, but they are not and should not be the only
defining features of the alliance. Given the long history of
U.S.-Philippine relations, the alliance must be based on more
robust cooperation across the spectrum of political, security,
economic, and sociocultural relations. Security concerns provide an
acute impetus for leaders to put more energy into the relationship,
but its sustainability will require a more comprehensive focus.
Building on a careful analysis of Southeast Asia's recent history,
politics, economics, and place within the Asia Pacific, this report
looks forward two decades to anticipate the development of trends
in the region and how they will impact the U.S.-Japan alliance. How
will Southeast Asian states come to grips with the political and
economic rise of China? How will they modernize their military
forces and security relationships, and what role can the United
States and Japan play? How will they manage their disputes in the
South China Sea, and how will they pursue greater regional
integration? These questions will prove critical in understanding
Southeast Asia's role in the Asia Pacific, and in the U.S.-Japan
alliance, in the decades ahead.
The South China Sea is arguably one of the world's most dangerous
regions, with conflicting diplomatic, legal, and security claims by
major and mid-level powers. To assess these disputes, CSIS brought
together an international group of experts-from Australia, Canada,
China, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, the United
Kingdom, the United States, and Vietnam. This volume gathers these
experts' analyses to provide a diverse and wide-ranging set of
perspectives on the region and to explore possibilities for future
cooperation.
A New Era of U.S.-Vietnam Relations examines the history of the
relationship and offers concrete recommendations for policymakers
in both countries to deepen cooperation across each major area of
the relationship: political and security ties, trade and economic
linkages, and people-to-people connections.
A U.S.-Indonesia Partnership for 2020 explores avenues to boost
cooperation in all three of these pillars. Political and security
relations between the United States and Indonesia have grown more
robust in recent years. Trade and economic relations, while
growing, remain contentious. This study assesses progress on these
two pillars, along with the under-resourced field of
people-to-people collaboration, and offers recommendations to take
the partnership to the next level in each area.
Satellite imagery and geospatial analysis tools offer an
unprecedented opportunity to harness new technologies in order to
help resolve boundary disputes. The South China Sea in Focus:
Clarifying the Limits of Maritime Dispute uses these tools to
provide a first and necessary step toward tackling the overlapping
maritime disputes in the South China Sea: determining which waters
are and are not in dispute under international law. The report
opens with a set of geographic information system (GIS) based maps
that provide an easily understandable benchmark against which
policymakers and academics can judge the claims and actions of the
South China Sea claimants. More detailed color maps and
methodological information follow for those who want to dig deeper
into the claims and the report s conclusions.
Potential sales of billions of dollars of energy equipment produced
by U.S. companies are at stake in the major economies of the
region. They are expected to import as much as $16 billion worth of
energy products over the next few years to power their economic
growth. But unless the United States launches new initiatives to
snare sizable shares of this investment, U.S. companies are
unlikely to be major players in all this trade.
A robust yet accessible history of US involvement in the world's
most dangerous waterway, and a guide for what to do about it.
Lamentations that the United States is "losing" the South China Sea
to China are now common. China has rapidly militarized islands and
reefs, projects power across the disputed waterway, and freely
harasses US allies and partners. The US has been unable to halt
these processes or convince Beijing to respect the rights of
smaller neighbors. But what exactly would "losing" mean? In On
Dangerous Ground, Gregory B. Poling evaluates US interests in the
world's most complex and dangerous maritime disputes by examining
more than a century of American involvement in the South China Sea.
He focuses on how the disputes there intersected and eventually
intertwined with the longstanding US commitment to freedom of the
seas and its evolving alliance network in Asia. He shows that these
abiding national interests-defense of maritime rights and
commitment to allies, particularly the Philippines-have repeatedly
pulled US attention to the South China Sea. Understanding how and
why is critical if the US and its allies hope to chart a course
through the increasingly fraught disputes, while facing a more
assertive, more capable, and far less compromising China. With an
emphasis on decisions made not just in Washington and Beijing, but
also in Manila and other Southeast Asian capitals, On Dangerous
Ground seeks to correct the record and balance the China-centric
narrative that has come to dominate the issue. It not only provides
the most comprehensive account yet of America's history in the
South China Sea, but it also demonstrates how that history should
inform US national security policy in one of the most important
waterways in the world.
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