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This book introduces a new perspective on risk seeking behaviour,
developing a framework based on various cognitive theories, and
applying it to the specific case-study of Turkey's foreign policy
toward Syria. The author examines why policy makers commit
themselves to polices that they do not have the capacity to
deliver, and develops an alternative theoretical model to prospect
theory in explaining risk taking behaviour based on the concept of
overconfidence. The volume suggests that overconfident individuals
exhibit risk seeking behaviour that contradicts the risk averse
behaviour of individuals in the domain of gain, as predicted by
prospect theory. Using a set of testable hypothesis deduced from
the model, it presents an empirical investigation of the causes
behind Turkish decision makers' unprecedented level of risk taking
toward the uprising in Syria and the consequences of this policy.
This book introduces a new perspective on risk seeking behaviour,
developing a framework based on various cognitive theories, and
applying it to the specific case-study of Turkey's foreign policy
toward Syria. The author examines why policy makers commit
themselves to polices that they do not have the capacity to
deliver, and develops an alternative theoretical model to prospect
theory in explaining risk taking behaviour based on the concept of
overconfidence. The volume suggests that overconfident individuals
exhibit risk seeking behaviour that contradicts the risk averse
behaviour of individuals in the domain of gain, as predicted by
prospect theory. Using a set of testable hypothesis deduced from
the model, it presents an empirical investigation of the causes
behind Turkish decision makers' unprecedented level of risk taking
toward the uprising in Syria and the consequences of this policy.
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