High-performance electronics are key to the U.S. Air Force's (USAF's) ability to deliver lethal effects at the time and location of their choosing. Additionally, these electronic systems must be able to withstand not only the rigors of the battlefield but be able to perform the needed mission while under cyber and electronic warfare (EW) attack. This requires a high degree of assurance that they are both physically reliable and resistant to adversary actions throughout their life cycle from design to sustainment. In 2016, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop titled Optimizing the Air?Force?Acquisition Strategy of Secure and Reliable Electronic Components, and released a summary of the workshop. This publication serves as a follow-on to provide recommendations to the USAF acquisition community. Table of Contents Front Matter Executive Summary Discussion of Selected Topics from the Restricted Report Conclusions Summary of Findings and Recommendations Appendixes Appendix A: Statement of Task Appendix B: Summary from the Workshop Proceedings Appendix C: SCRM Policy, Guidance, and Standards Appendix D: SCRM-Specific NDAA/Public Laws (2009-2019) Appendix E: Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement Subparts Addressing SCRM Appendix F: Industry Test Standards for Component Integrity and Counterfeit Detection Appendix G: Summarization of Relevant Past Reports on USAF and DoD Microelectronic Supply Chain Appendix H: Acronyms Appendix I: Committee and Liaison Biographical Information

Encryption is a process for making information unreadable by an adversary who does not possess a specific key that is required to make the encrypted information readable. The inverse process, making information that has been encrypted readable, is referred to as decryption. Cryptography has become widespread and is used by private as well as governmental actors. It also enables authentication and underlies the safe use of the Internet and computer systems by individuals and organizations worldwide. Emerging cryptographic technologies offer capabilities such as the ability to process encrypted information without first decrypting it. At the request of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, this report identifies potential scenarios that would describe the balance between encryption and decryption over the next 10 to 20 years and assesses the national security and intelligence implications of each scenario. For each of these scenarios, Cryptography and the Intelligence Community identifies risks, opportunities, and actions. Attention to the findings should enable the Intelligence Community to prepare for the future and to recognize emerging trends and developments and respond appropriately. Table of Contents Front Matter Summary 1 Introduction 2 Introduction to Encryption 3 Methodology 4 Drivers 5 Scenarios 6 Implications for U.S. Intelligence 7 Findings Appendixes Appendix A: Statement of Task Appendix B: Meeting Agendas Appendix C: Potential Scenarios Appendix D: Global Trends 2040 Appendix E: Acronyms and Abbreviations Appendix F: Committee Member Biographical Information

Within the past decade an ever-growing number of New Space organizations have emerged that are unencumbered by legacy practices and constraints. By reimagining, creating, and continuously improving SmallSat space technology a new and growing space ecosystem is now in place that is capable of serving a broad stakeholder community of both traditional users and new or nontraditional users. Current commercial practices are expanding with capabilities including technology and business-driven applications that open the door to a broad and vibrant ecosystem offering a wide range of solutions capable of supporting a growing range of stakeholders. In parallel to traditional approaches, space infrastructure related to manufacturing, such as customized spacecraft buses, instruments, and sensors?including high-resolution imaging and radar systems rivaling the performance of traditional systems?are emerging in both growing volume and with constantly improving capability. On the operational commercial ground stations are now routinely available, as are data management and analytics including cloud computing for data access and archiving. Thus, if properly encouraged and nourished, a broadly capable ecosystem can emerge including new business opportunities for data fusion, analysis, and databuys, as well as ground/space communications that can equally benefit both traditional and nontraditional user communities. Leveraging Commercial Space for Earth and Ocean Remote Sensing assesses the feasibility and implications of creating and exploiting partnerships for developing, deploying, and operating a system of satellites and supporting infrastructure capable of sensing ocean, coastal, atmospheric, and hydrologic data of sufficient scientific quality to enable prediction models and to support near real time applications of national interest. This report identifies and describes promising options for such a system. Table of Contents Front Matter Summary 1 Introduction 2 Current and Future Commercial Landscape 3 Hybrid Space Architecture and the Pathway to a New Space Ecosystem 4 Science and Applications 5 Benefits and Challenges of New Business Models 6 Concluding Statement by the Committee Appendixes Appendix A: the National Oceanographic Partnership Program Challenge of Conducting a Technology Demonstration Appendix B: Acronyms and Abbreviations

In recent years, interest and progress in the area of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have boomed, with new applications vigorously pursued across many sectors. At the same time, the computing and communications technologies on which we have come to rely present serious security concerns: cyberattacks have escalated in number, frequency, and impact, drawing increased attention to the vulnerabilities of cyber systems and the need to increase their security. In the face of this changing landscape, there is significant concern and interest among policymakers, security practitioners, technologists, researchers, and the public about the potential implications of AI and ML for cybersecurity. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop on March 12-13, 2019 to discuss and explore these concerns. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop. Table of Contents Front Matter 1 Introduction and Context 2 Artificial Intelligence and the Landscape of Cyber Engagements 3 Currently Deployed Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Tools for Cyber Defense Operations 4 Adversarial Artificial Intelligence for Cybersecurity: Research and Development and Emerging Areas 5 Security Risks of Artificial Intelligence-Enabled Systems 6 Deep Fakes 7 Wrap-Up Discussion: Identifying Key Implications and Open Questions Appendixes Appendix A: Workshop Agenda Appendix B: Additional Discussion Questions from Sponsor Appendix C: Planning Committee and Staff Biographies Appendix D: Speaker Biographies Appendix E: Abbreviations and Acronyms

The Intelligence Community Studies Board of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a 2-day virtual workshop on December 17 and 21, 2021, to explore insights from world-class experts and technologists familiar with the extensive range of issues associated with anticipating rare events?those characterized by a very low probability of occurring?of major significance. Over the course of the 2-day workshop, the speakers discussed analytical methods, computational advances, data sources, and risk assessment approaches for anticipating rare events, including natural disasters, pandemics, anthropogenic threats, and widespread technological change. This proceedings is a factual summary of the presentations and discussion of the workshop. Table of Contents Front Matter 1 Introduction and Overview 2 Mathematical Foundations for Anticipating Rare Events 3 Detection, Indications, and Warnings 4 Planning, Forecasting, and Intelligence Preparation 5 Fireside Chat - Using Artificial Intelligence to Predict the Occurrence of Sepsis 6 Fireside Chat - Rare Events and Insurance 7 Multisource Information Fusion, Situation Assessment, and Course of Action Selection 8 Active Prevention and Deterrence 9 Concluding Remarks Appendixes Appendix A: Statement of Task Appendix B: Workshop Agenda Appendix C: Planning Committee Biographies Appendix D: Speaker Biographies

Quantum mechanics, the subfield of physics that describes the behavior of very small (quantum) particles, provides the basis for a new paradigm of computing. First proposed in the 1980s as a way to improve computational modeling of quantum systems, the field of quantum computing has recently garnered significant attention due to progress in building small-scale devices. However, significant technical advances will be required before a large-scale, practical quantum computer can be achieved. Quantum Computing: Progress and Prospects provides an introduction to the field, including the unique characteristics and constraints of the technology, and assesses the feasibility and implications of creating a functional quantum computer capable of addressing real-world problems. This report considers hardware and software requirements, quantum algorithms, drivers of advances in quantum computing and quantum devices, benchmarks associated with relevant use cases, the time and resources required, and how to assess the probability of success. Table of Contents Front Matter Summary 1 Progress in Computing 2 Quantum Computing: A New Paradigm 3 Quantum Algorithms and Applications 4 Quantum Computing's Implications for Cryptography 5 Essential Hardware Components of a Quantum Computer 6 Essential Software Components of a Scalable Quantum Computer 7 Feasibility and Time Frames of Quantum Computing Appendixes Appendix A: Statement of Task Appendix B: Trapped Ion Quantum Computers Appendix C: Superconducting Quantum Computers Appendix D: Other Approaches to Building Qubits Appendix E: Global R&D Investment Appendix F: Committee and Staff Biographical Information Appendix G: Briefers to the Committee Appendix H: Acronyms and Abbreviations Appendix I: Glossary

The Intelligence Community Studies Board of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop on August 9-10, 2017 to examine challenges in machine generation of analytic products from multi-source data. Workshop speakers and participants discussed research challenges related to machine-based methods for generating analytic products and for automating the evaluation of these products, with special attention to learning from small data, using multi-source data, adversarial learning, and understanding the human-machine relationship. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop. Table of Contents Front Matter 1 Introduction 2 Session 1: Plenary 3 Session 2: Machine Learning from Image, Video, and Map Data 4 Session 3: Machine Learning from Natural Languages 5 Session 4: Learning from Multi-Source Data 6 Session 5: Learning from Noisy, Adversarial Inputs 7 Session 6: Learning from Social Media 8 Session 7: Humans and Machines Working Together with Big Data 9 Session 8: Use of Machine Learning for Privacy Ethics 10 Session 9: Evaluation of Machine-Generated Products 11 Session 10: Capability Technology Matrix Appendixes Appendix A: Biographical Sketches of Workshop Planning Committee Appendix B: Workshop Agenda Appendix C: Workshop Statement of Task Appendix D: Capability Technology Tables Appendix E: Acronyms

U.S. leadership in technology innovation is central to our nation?s interests, including its security, economic prosperity, and quality of life. Our nation has created a science and technology ecosystem that fosters innovation, risk taking, and the discovery of new ideas that lead to new technologies through robust collaborations across and within academia, industry, and government, and our research and development enterprise has attracted the best and brightest scientists, engineers, and entrepreneurs from around the world. The quality and openness of our research enterprise have been the basis of our global leadership in technological innovation, which has brought enormous advantages to our national interests. In today?s rapidly changing landscapes of technology and competition, however, the assumption that the United States will continue to hold a dominant competitive position by depending primarily on its historical approach of identifying specific and narrow technology areas requiring controls or restrictions is not valid. Further challenging that approach is the proliferation of highly integrated and globally shared platforms that power and enable most modern technology applications. To review the protection of technologies that have strategic importance for national security in an era of openness and competition, Protecting U.S. Technological Advantage considers policies and practices related to the production and commercialization of research in domains critical to national security. This report makes recommendations for changes to technology protection policies and practices that reflect the current realities of how technologies are developed and incorporated into new products and processes. Table of Contents Front Matter Summary 1 Introduction 2 Changes in Technology Development and Commercialization 3 The New Competitive Landscape 4 The Competitive Challenge Posed by China 5 Findings 6 Recommendations References APPENDIXES Appendix A: Agendas Appendix B: Biographies of Committee Members