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Like many other scientists, I have long been interested in history.
I enjoy reading about the minutiae of its daily unfolding: the
coinage, food, clothes, games, literature and habits which
characterize a people. I am carried away by the broad sweep of its
major events: the wars, famines, migrations, reforms, political
swings and scientific advances which shape a society. I know that
historians value autobiographical accounts as part of the basic
material from which the stuff of history is distilled; this should
apply no less to statistical than to political or social history.
Modem statistics is a relatively young science; it was while
pondering this fact sometime in 1980 that I realized that many of
the pioneers of our field could still be called upon to tell their
stories. If, however, biographical material about these eminent
statisticians was not gathered, then one might lose the chance to
gain insight into the origins of many an important statistical
development. The remarkable experience of these colleagues could
not be readily duplicated. Fired by these thoughts, I took it upon
myself to plan the framework of this book. In it, eminent
statisticians (probabilists are included under this title) would be
invited to sketch their lives, explain how they had become
interested in probability and. statistics, give an account of their
major contributions, and possibly hazard some predictions about the
future of the subject."
This book brings together the personal accounts and reflections of
nineteen mathematical model-builders, whose specialty is
probabilistic modelling. The reader may well wonder why, apart from
personal interest, one should commission and edit such a collection
of articles. There are, of course, many reasons, but perhaps the
three most relevant are: (i) a philosophicaJ interest in conceptual
models; this is an interest shared by everyone who has ever puzzled
over the relationship between thought and reality; (ii) a
conviction, not unsupported by empirical evidence, that
probabilistic modelling has an important contribution to make to
scientific research; and finally (iii) a curiosity, historical in
its nature, about the complex interplay between personal events and
the development of a field of mathematical research, namely applied
probability. Let me discuss each of these in turn. Philosophical
Abstraction, the formation of concepts, and the construction of
conceptual models present us with complex philosophical problems
which date back to Democritus, Plato and Aristotle. We have all, at
one time or another, wondered just how we think; are our thoughts,
concepts and models of reality approxim&tions to the truth, or
are they simply functional constructs helping us to master our
environment? Nowhere are these problems more apparent than in
mathematical model ling, where idealized concepts and constructions
replace the imperfect realities for which they stand."
Statisticians of the Centuries aims to demonstrate the achievements of statistics to a broad audience, and to commemorate the work of celebrated statisticians. This is done through short biographies that put the statistical work in its historical and sociological context, emphasizing contributions to science and society in the broadest terms rather than narrow technical achievement. The discipline is treated from its earliest times and only individuals born prior to the 20th Century are included. The volume arose through the initiative of the International Statistical Institute (ISI), the principal representative association for international statistics (founded in 1885). Extensive consultations within the statistical community, and with prominent members of ISI in particular, led to the names of the 104 individuals who are included in the volume. The biographies were contributed by 73 authors from across the world. The editors are the well-known statisticians Chris Heyde and Eugene Seneta. Chris Heyde is Professor of Statistics at both Columbia University in New York and the Australian National University in Canberra. He is also Director of the Center for Applied Probability at Columbia. He has twice served as Vice President of the ISI, and also as President of the ISI's Bernoulli Society. Eugene Seneta is Professor of Mathematical Statistics at the University of Sydney and a Member of the ISI. His historical writings focus on 19th Century France and the Russian Empire. He has taught courses on the history of probability-based statistics in U.S. universities. Both editors are Fellows of the Australian Academy of Science and have, at various times, been awarded the Pitman Medal of the Statistical Society of Australia for their distinguished research contributions.
Statisticians of the Centuries aims to demonstrate the achievements of statistics to a broad audience, and to commemorate the work of celebrated statisticians. This is done through short biographies that put the statistical work in its historical and sociological context, emphasizing contributions to science and society in the broadest terms rather than narrow technical achievement. The discipline is treated from its earliest times and only individuals born prior to the 20th Century are included. The volume arose through the initiative of the International Statistical Institute (ISI), the principal representative association for international statistics (founded in 1885). Extensive consultations within the statistical community, and with prominent members of ISI in particular, led to the names of the 104 individuals who are included in the volume. The biographies were contributed by 73 authors from across the world.The editors are the well-known statisticians Chris Heyde and Eugene Seneta. Chris Heyde is Professor of Statistics at both Columbia University in New York and the Australian National University in Canberra. Eugene Seneta is Professor of Mathematical Statistics at the University of Sydney and a Member of the ISI. His historical writings focus on 19th Century France and the Russian Empire. Both editors are Fellows of the Australian Academy of Science and have, at various times, been awarded the Pitman Medal of the Statistical Society of Australia for their distinguished research contributions.
This general introduction to the mathematical techniques needed to understand epidemiology begins with an historical outline of some disease statistics dating from Daniel Bernoulli's smallpox data of 1760. The authors then go on to describe simple deterministic and stochastic models in continuous and discrete time for epidemics taking place in either homogeneous or stratified (nonhomogeneous) populations. They offer a range of methods for constructing and analyzing models, mostly in the context of viral and bacterial diseases of human populations. These models are contrasted with models for rumors and macro-parasitic diseases. Questions of fitting data to models, and the use of models to understand methods for controlling the spread of infection, are discussed. Exercises and complementary results at the end of each chapter extend the scope of the text.
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