Clearly, concisely, and with many examples from public and private enterprise, Upgrading Leadership's Crystal Ball shows why predictions are usually wrong and presents a better way to look at the future forecasting. This book is essential-reading for anyone who needs to make the best possible strategic decisions for moving an organization forward in today's rapidly changing environment.Dr. Bauer supplies an insightful comparison of the two mainstream approaches for looking ahead. Although predicting and forecasting are usually used as synonyms for a single process, they are conceptually and methodologically quite different. He explains why everyday failure to operationalize these differences robs us of power to envision and pursue good futures, especially when we are headed in the wrong direction. Readers will learn the real-world value of distinguishing between predicting (extrapolating historical trends) and forecasting (estimating the probabilities of possibilities). Following a description of predictive modeling and a discussion of five reasons why it fails so often in current applications, Dr. Bauer explains the superiority of forecasting and how to do it. To complete readers understanding of the many compelling reasons for making the shift from predicting to forecasting, Upgrading Leadership's Crystal Ball presents a practical approach to strategic planning in unpredictable times. It concludes with an analysis of the future of big data and its likely impact on the future.Dr. Bauer is uniquely qualified to write this important book; he is trained in both predicting (economics) and forecasting (meteorology). Author of more than 250 publications, he is internationally recognized not only for long-term success in foretelling the future of medical science and health care, but also for successful innovations to create a better delivery system. This book distills the lessons garnered over his 40 ye

Americans are bombarded with statistical data each and every day, and healthcare professionals are no exception. All segments of healthcare rely on data provided by insurance companies, consultants, research firms, and the federal government to help them make a host of decisions regarding the delivery of medical services. But while these health professionals rely on data, do they really make the best use of the information? Not if they fail to understand whether the assumptions behind the formulas generating the numbers make sense. Not if they don t understand that the world of healthcare is flooded with inaccurate, misleading, and even dangerous statistics. Statistical Analysis for Decision Makers in Healthcare: Understanding and Evaluating Critical Information in a Competitive Market, Second Edition explains the fundamental concepts of statistics, as well as their common uses and misuses. Without jargon or mathematical formulas, nationally renowned healthcare expert and author, Jeff Bauer, presents a clear verbal and visual explanation of what statistics really do. He provides a practical discussion of scientific methods and data to show why statistics should never be allowed to compensate for bad science or bad data. Relying on real-world examples, Dr. Bauer stresses a conceptual understanding that empowers readers to apply a scientifically rigorous approach to the evaluation of data. With the tools he supplies, you will learn how to dismantle statistical evidence that goes against common sense. Easy to understand, practical, and even entertaining, this is the book you wish you had when you took statistics in college and the one you are now glad to have to defend yourself against the abundance of bad studies and misinformation that might otherwise corrupt your decisions.

Clearly, concisely, and with many examples from public and private enterprise, Upgrading Leadership's Crystal Ball shows why predictions are usually wrong and presents a better way to look at the future-forecasting. This book is essential-reading for anyone who needs to make the best possible strategic decisions for moving an organization forward in today's rapidly changing environment. Dr. Bauer supplies an insightful comparison of the two mainstream approaches for looking ahead. Although predicting and forecasting are usually used as synonyms for a single process, they are conceptually and methodologically quite different. He explains why everyday failure to operationalize these differences robs us of power to envision and pursue good futures, especially when we are headed in the wrong direction. Readers will learn the real-world value of distinguishing between predicting (extrapolating historical trends) and forecasting (estimating the probabilities of possibilities). Following a description of predictive modeling and a discussion of five reasons why it fails so often in current applications, Dr. Bauer explains the superiority of forecasting and how to do it. To complete readers' understanding of the many compelling reasons for making the shift from predicting to forecasting, Upgrading Leadership's Crystal Ball presents a practical approach to strategic planning in unpredictable times. It concludes with an analysis of the future of big data and its likely impact on the future. Dr. Bauer is uniquely qualified to write this important book; he is trained in both predicting (economics) and forecasting (meteorology). Author of more than 250 publications, he is internationally recognized not only for long-term success in foretelling the future of medical science and health care, but also for successful innovations to create a better delivery system. This book distills the lessons garnered over his 40 year career as economist and futurist into a guide that other leaders can use to avoid problems and create better options in any realm. The book includes a foreword by Dr. Stan Gryskiewicz, author of Positive Turbulence.

Americans are bombarded with statistical data each and every day, and healthcare professionals are no exception. All segments of healthcare rely on data provided by insurance companies, consultants, research firms, and the federal government to help them make a host of decisions regarding the delivery of medical services. But while these health professionals rely on data, do they really make the best use of the information? Not if they fail to understand whether the assumptions behind the formulas generating the numbers make sense. Not if they don't understand that the world of healthcare is flooded with inaccurate, misleading, and even dangerous statistics. Statistical Analysis for Decision Makers in Healthcare: Understanding and Evaluating Critical Information in a Competitive Market, Second Edition explains the fundamental concepts of statistics, as well as their common uses and misuses. Without jargon or mathematical formulas, nationally renowned healthcare expert and author, Jeff Bauer, presents a clear verbal and visual explanation of what statistics really do. He provides a practical discussion of scientific methods and data to show why statistics should never be allowed to compensate for bad science or bad data. Relying on real-world examples, Dr. Bauer stresses a conceptual understanding that empowers readers to apply a scientifically rigorous approach to the evaluation of data. With the tools he supplies, you will learn how to dismantle statistical evidence that goes against common sense. Easy to understand, practical, and even entertaining, this is the book you wish you had when you took statistics in college - and the one you are now glad to have to defend yourself against the abundance of bad studies and misinformation that might otherwise corrupt your decisions.

This 25th Anniversary edition completely updates the powerful insights and policy recommendations of Not What the Doctor Ordered, first published in 1993 by renowned healthcare futurist and medical economist the author. It presents specific solutions to serious problems of cost, quality, access, and outcomes by allowing all Americans to purchase services directly from caregivers who provide an expanding array of medical services at least as well as physicians-at lower cost. Focusing on new realities of the 21st century, the authorshows not only why giving consumers the right to choose advanced practitioners is the top priority for improving our overpriced, underperforming medical care delivery system, but also how to make the necessary changes. As he clearly and concisely explains from medical and economic perspectives, the key is eliminating physicians' monopoly powers over advanced practice nurses, clinical pharmacists, physical therapists, clinical psychologists, and other advanced practice (AP) health professionals who now rival physicians in scientific knowledge and caregiving skills within well-defined scopes of practice regulated by state governments.