Americans are bombarded with statistical data each and every day, and healthcare professionals are no exception. All segments of healthcare rely on data provided by insurance companies, consultants, research firms, and the federal government to help them make a host of decisions regarding the delivery of medical services. But while these health professionals rely on data, do they really make the best use of the information? Not if they fail to understand whether the assumptions behind the formulas generating the numbers make sense. Not if they don t understand that the world of healthcare is flooded with inaccurate, misleading, and even dangerous statistics. Statistical Analysis for Decision Makers in Healthcare: Understanding and Evaluating Critical Information in a Competitive Market, Second Edition explains the fundamental concepts of statistics, as well as their common uses and misuses. Without jargon or mathematical formulas, nationally renowned healthcare expert and author, Jeff Bauer, presents a clear verbal and visual explanation of what statistics really do. He provides a practical discussion of scientific methods and data to show why statistics should never be allowed to compensate for bad science or bad data. Relying on real-world examples, Dr. Bauer stresses a conceptual understanding that empowers readers to apply a scientifically rigorous approach to the evaluation of data. With the tools he supplies, you will learn how to dismantle statistical evidence that goes against common sense. Easy to understand, practical, and even entertaining, this is the book you wish you had when you took statistics in college and the one you are now glad to have to defend yourself against the abundance of bad studies and misinformation that might otherwise corrupt your decisions.

Clearly, concisely, and with many examples from public and private enterprise, Upgrading Leadership's Crystal Ball shows why predictions are usually wrong and presents a better way to look at the future forecasting. This book is essential-reading for anyone who needs to make the best possible strategic decisions for moving an organization forward in today's rapidly changing environment.Dr. Bauer supplies an insightful comparison of the two mainstream approaches for looking ahead. Although predicting and forecasting are usually used as synonyms for a single process, they are conceptually and methodologically quite different. He explains why everyday failure to operationalize these differences robs us of power to envision and pursue good futures, especially when we are headed in the wrong direction. Readers will learn the real-world value of distinguishing between predicting (extrapolating historical trends) and forecasting (estimating the probabilities of possibilities). Following a description of predictive modeling and a discussion of five reasons why it fails so often in current applications, Dr. Bauer explains the superiority of forecasting and how to do it. To complete readers understanding of the many compelling reasons for making the shift from predicting to forecasting, Upgrading Leadership's Crystal Ball presents a practical approach to strategic planning in unpredictable times. It concludes with an analysis of the future of big data and its likely impact on the future.Dr. Bauer is uniquely qualified to write this important book; he is trained in both predicting (economics) and forecasting (meteorology). Author of more than 250 publications, he is internationally recognized not only for long-term success in foretelling the future of medical science and health care, but also for successful innovations to create a better delivery system. This book distills the lessons garnered over his 40 ye

Clearly, concisely, and with many examples from public and private enterprise, Upgrading Leadership's Crystal Ball shows why predictions are usually wrong and presents a better way to look at the future-forecasting. This book is essential-reading for anyone who needs to make the best possible strategic decisions for moving an organization forward in today's rapidly changing environment. Dr. Bauer supplies an insightful comparison of the two mainstream approaches for looking ahead. Although predicting and forecasting are usually used as synonyms for a single process, they are conceptually and methodologically quite different. He explains why everyday failure to operationalize these differences robs us of power to envision and pursue good futures, especially when we are headed in the wrong direction. Readers will learn the real-world value of distinguishing between predicting (extrapolating historical trends) and forecasting (estimating the probabilities of possibilities). Following a description of predictive modeling and a discussion of five reasons why it fails so often in current applications, Dr. Bauer explains the superiority of forecasting and how to do it. To complete readers' understanding of the many compelling reasons for making the shift from predicting to forecasting, Upgrading Leadership's Crystal Ball presents a practical approach to strategic planning in unpredictable times. It concludes with an analysis of the future of big data and its likely impact on the future. Dr. Bauer is uniquely qualified to write this important book; he is trained in both predicting (economics) and forecasting (meteorology). Author of more than 250 publications, he is internationally recognized not only for long-term success in foretelling the future of medical science and health care, but also for successful innovations to create a better delivery system. This book distills the lessons garnered over his 40 year career as economist and futurist into a guide that other leaders can use to avoid problems and create better options in any realm. The book includes a foreword by Dr. Stan Gryskiewicz, author of Positive Turbulence.

Americans are bombarded with statistical data each and every day, and healthcare professionals are no exception. All segments of healthcare rely on data provided by insurance companies, consultants, research firms, and the federal government to help them make a host of decisions regarding the delivery of medical services. But while these health professionals rely on data, do they really make the best use of the information? Not if they fail to understand whether the assumptions behind the formulas generating the numbers make sense. Not if they don't understand that the world of healthcare is flooded with inaccurate, misleading, and even dangerous statistics. Statistical Analysis for Decision Makers in Healthcare: Understanding and Evaluating Critical Information in a Competitive Market, Second Edition explains the fundamental concepts of statistics, as well as their common uses and misuses. Without jargon or mathematical formulas, nationally renowned healthcare expert and author, Jeff Bauer, presents a clear verbal and visual explanation of what statistics really do. He provides a practical discussion of scientific methods and data to show why statistics should never be allowed to compensate for bad science or bad data. Relying on real-world examples, Dr. Bauer stresses a conceptual understanding that empowers readers to apply a scientifically rigorous approach to the evaluation of data. With the tools he supplies, you will learn how to dismantle statistical evidence that goes against common sense. Easy to understand, practical, and even entertaining, this is the book you wish you had when you took statistics in college - and the one you are now glad to have to defend yourself against the abundance of bad studies and misinformation that might otherwise corrupt your decisions.

The Paradox: Americans are not as healthy as people in dozens of comparable countries that spend 30 percent less on health care, and our medical marketplace overall is plagued by persistent problems of cost, quality, and access. Yet, the world's best individual health systems are located in the U.S.-each a unique result of visionary leadership and private initiative, not government-driven health reform. The Imperatives: Due to powerful new forces explained in this book, medical spending has stopped growing. Purchasers, payers, and patients are no longer willing or able to keep paying more. To stay in business and improve population health, providers and their business partners must eliminate the shameful waste generated by inefficient and ineffective production processes. The Solution: Simply repairing or repealing the Affordable Care Act will not get us where we want to go. The fundamental roadblock is a wasteful system, not uninsured Americans. Reform needs to be immediately redirected to creating the best health care system that 17 percent of GDP can buy. Money saved by taking the new path to reform can then be used to improve population health through access for all. Paradox and Imperatives in Health Care is the roadmap for getting there. Supplies updated perspectives on health care's problems and solutions Details the reasons why government-driven reform does not solve problems Provides a justification for regulatory relief tied to performance improvement Suggests specific new policies for a better approach to desired outcomes Presents content written expressly for busy executives and policy makers