Ten lessons from history on the dos and don'ts of analyzing political risk Our baffling new multipolar world grows ever more complex, desperately calling for new ways of thinking, particularly when it comes to political risk. To Dare More Boldly provides those ways, telling the story of the rise of political risk analysis, both as a discipline and a lucrative high-stakes industry that guides the strategic decisions of corporations and governments around the world. It assesses why recent predictions have gone so wrong and boldly puts forward ten analytical commandments that can stand the test of time. Written by one of the field's leading practitioners, this incisive book derives these indelible rules of the game from a wide-ranging and entertaining survey of world history. John Hulsman looks at examples as seemingly unconnected as the ancient Greeks and Romans, the Third Crusade, the Italian Renaissance, America's founders, Napoleon, the Battle of Gettysburg, the British Empire, the Kaiser's Germany, the breakup of the Beatles, Charles Manson, and Deng Xiaoping's China. Hulsman makes sense of yesterday's world, and in doing so provides an invaluable conceptual tool kit for navigating today's. To Dare More Boldly creatively explains why political risk analysis is vital for business and political leaders alike, and authoritatively establishes the analytical rules of thumb that practitioners need to do it effectively.

A New Trading Agenda for the Age of Globalisation. At a time when public opposition to joining the euro is increasing and a debate is emerging about the long term costs and benefits of Britain's membership of the EU, this paper presents a timely solution to Britain's somewhat strained relationship with the EU. Dr John C Hulsman, a senior policy analyst at the Washington-based Heritage Foundation, presents a compelling case for the advancement of Britain's trade interests through UK participation in a global free trade association. This would permit Britain to gain the benefits of freer trade whilst avoiding a constant battle with EU partners over ever-closer integration. To move the debate forward, and in particular to test whether or not Dr Hulsman's proposal is viable, the IEA asked four well-known writers on European issues to analyse the paper and write commentaries. These are followed by a response by Dr Hulsman. All the commentators are generally supportive of the Hulsman idea, though they offer a variety of critiques. This publication is timely and highly readable, and stands out in the discussions about Britain's relationship with the EU, not only by raising issues of real substance, but by providing positive suggestions about a way out of the confused and quarrelsome state into which that relationship appears to have lapsed.

"The Godfather Doctrine" draws clear and essential lessons from perhaps the greatest Hollywood movie ever made to illustrate America's changing geopolitical place in the world and how our country can best meet the momentous strategic challenges it faces.

In the movie "The Godfather," Don Corleone, head of New York's most powerful organized-crime family, is shockingly gunned down in broad daylight, leaving his sons Sonny and Michael, along with his adopted son, consigliere Tom Hagen, to chart a new course for the family. In "The Godfather Doctrine," John Hulsman and Wess Mitchell show how the aging and wounded don is emblematic of cold-war American power on the decline in a new world where our enemies play by unfamiliar rules, and how the don's heirs uncannily exemplify the three leading schools of American foreign policy today. Tom, the left-of-center liberal institutionalist, thinks the old rules still apply and that negotiation is the answer. Sonny is the Bush-era neocon who shoots first and asks questions later, proving an easy target for his enemies. Only Michael, the realist, has a sure feel for the changing scene, recognizing the need for flexible combinations of soft and hard power to keep the family strong and maintain its influence and security in a dangerous and rapidly changing world.

Based on Hulsman and Mitchell's groundbreaking and widely debated article, "Pax Corleone," "The Godfather Doctrine" explains for everyone why Francis Ford Coppola's epic story about a Mafia dynasty holds key insights for ensuring America's survival in the twenty-first century.

During 2013-14, the IEA ran a competition to find the best blueprint for Britain outside the EU, with the objective of securing a free and prosperous economy should it choose to leave. The IEA does not have a position on whether Britain should leave the EU. However, it is part of their educational mission to promote a wider understanding of the importance of a free economy and the institutions that are necessary for a free economy. They therefore regarded it as important to promote debate on the best way to achieve this in the event of the British people choosing to leave the EU: that was the main purpose of the competition. To provide a longer-lasting contribution to this debate, the IEA decided to publish this monograph examining the various options using, in the main, entries to the British Exit ('Brexit') competition. There was a wide range of possible approaches suggested by entrants to that competition.Some proposed that Britain should promote free trade and openness through the unilateral removal of trade and other barriers to economic activity; others proposed maintaining formal relationships with European countries through the European Free Trade Association and/or the European Economic Area; still other entrants took the view that Britain should seek to form economic and political alliances and partnerships with countries outside Europe - for example with the Commonwealth or the --Anglosphere - normally with a view to that being a gateway to free trade with as much of the world as would be willing. The winner was Foreign Office diplomat Iain Mansfield, who received most of the publicity at the end of the competition. However, in understanding how Britain can be free and prosperous in the event that it leaves the EU, it is worthwhile considering a range of other approaches to 'Brexit'. It is only through determining the best destiny for Britain outside the EU that the correct decision will be taken about whether to leave the EU and, if so, how. This book therefore brings together Iain Mansfield's submission with edited versions of two other entries.One of those, by Robert Oulds, proposes that the UK remains a member of the European Economic Area and rejoins the European Free Trade Association; another, by Ralph Buckle and Tim Hewish, proposes that Britain pursues free trade through the route of the Commonwealth and the Anglosphere. The final contribution, by John Hulsman, was not an entry to the competition but re-examines an approach to promoting free trade first proposed in his IEA monograph published in 2001, The World Turned Rightside Up. This involved the development of a global free-trade association. Overall, this book is an important contribution to the debate about how Britain should leave the EU, should it choose to do so. It distils clearly the different options and the advantages and disadvantages of alternative approaches with reference to the objective of promoting a free and prosperous economy. The authors have different views about how to achieve the same objective. It is hoped that, by presenting those different views in this volume, the debate will move beyond 'Britain - in or out?' to a debate about something just as important: 'If Britain should leave, how should it leave?'