Presenting innovative modelling approaches to the analysis of fiscal policy and government debt, this book moves beyond previous models that have relied upon the assumption that various age-specific rates and policy variables remain unchanged when it comes to generating government expenditures and tax revenues. As a result of population ageing, current policy settings in many countries are projected to lead to unsustainable levels of public debt; Tax Policy and Uncertainty explores models that allow for feedbacks and uncertainty to combat this. Applicable to any country, the models in the book explore the optimal timing and extent of tax changes in the face of anticipated high future debt. Chapters produce stochastic debt projections, including probability distribution of debt ratios at each point in time. It also offers important analysis of fiscal policy trade-offs as well as providing advice on when and by how much tax rates should be increased. Economics scholars focusing on fiscal policy will appreciate the improved models in this book that allow both for uncertainty and feedback effects arising from responses to increased debt. It will also be helpful to economic policy advisors and economists in government departments.

Combining theoretical and practical aspects of policy analysis, this book evaluates actual and proposed policy reforms to income tax and transfer systems, using a behavioural tax microsimulation model. It highlights how these models allow for the full details of tax systems and the considerable population heterogeneity that is found in practice. John Creedy and Penny Mok look at how such models can be used to obtain summary measures that are relevant in tax debates. These include elasticities of labour supply and measures of the welfare effects of tax changes, in terms of excess burdens. Chapters further examine how models can be used to search systematically, across a range of policy changes, for revenue-neutral reforms which result in an improvement, in terms of an explicit evaluation function. This will be a timely read for students of public finance, welfare and labour economics. The careful attention paid to metrics used in policy evaluations will also make this a useful book for researchers and policy advisors concerned with income taxation, social transfers, inequality and poverty measurement.

This timely book analyses the elasticity of taxable income, a central concept in public finance with a rapidly growing wealth of literature. Combining original empirical research with rigorous theoretical modelling of tax revenue and optimal tax policy, this innovative study examines the complexities and new methods of estimating the elasticity of taxable income. Clarifying the role of the elasticity of taxable income in influencing total tax revenue in a complex multi-rate structure, John Creedy divides the change in revenue into various components to derive revenue-maximising rates. He examines the welfare effects and 'excess burden' of income taxation, and considers the role of the elasticity in 'optimal' tax rates and administrative policy aiming to reduce tax evasion. The book concludes with a discussion concerning the problems and various methods of elasticity estimation, including regression and bunching. With detailed illustrations to expand and engage, this will prove an invaluable read for students and scholars of economics, particularly those focusing on the economics of taxation and tax policy. The empirical analyses and practical insights will also benefit public sector economists and policy analysts concerned with tax design.

Comparing Income Distributions brings together John Creedy's recent original research and analyses of income distribution. The book is concerned with both static, or cross-sectional, comparisons, and dynamic aspects of income mobility. The author presents new methods of depicting and measuring income mobility and poverty persistence. Income mobility is explored in terms of individuals' relative income changes and their positional changes within the distribution. The first half of the book covers a range of technical aspects of inequality measurement, including less well-known properties of inequality indices, and the decomposition of inequality changes into component contributions. The second half explores various aspects of the graphical display and measurement of income mobility. While the focus of the book is on methods, illustrative examples are provided using New Zealand data. Graduate students, public sector economists, and researchers interested in income distribution will welcome this important work.

Research Without Tears provides a concise and fascinating guide for those starting their first research project and writing a paper, report or thesis. John Creedy, a widely published writer himself in both journals and books, argues that the process of planning and executing a research project, and producing a research paper which communicates results in a clear and succinct way, is far from self-evident even to those with extensive experience of writing other types of report or essay. This unique and invaluable book therefore sets down explicitly some of those points that even experienced researchers often take for granted. The book covers topics including: planning a first research project; writing a first research paper; writing a thesis and the relationship with a supervisor; the differences between journal and book publishing and what to expect from editors of both publishing formats. It also offers invaluable advice on structure, writing clearly and pitfalls to avoid as well as the processes involved in publishing. This highly interesting and valuable book will be essential reading for students and academics in economics and other related disciplines.

Taxation and Economic Behaviour offers a number of broad introductory surveys in the areas of public economics and public finance. Divided clearly into two parts - measurement issues and taxation and economic behaviour - this innovative collection of articles consists of published refereed papers and several new and previously unpublished pieces.Initially, the book focuses on measurement issues, and includes chapters on income inequality, poverty, tax progressivity, income dynamics and welfare changes. It then goes on to explore the wider theme of taxation and economic behaviour, including material on taxation and labour supply, behavioural micro simulation modelling, and general equilibrium. Throughout the book, John Creedy makes use of numerical examples which help to illustrate the structure and use of the various models. Providing introductory material and syntheses of a wide range of topics, Taxation and Economic Behaviour will be welcomed by students, lecturers and researchers with an interest in public finance and public sector economics.

Microsimulation Modelling of Taxation and the Labour Market reports new research on behavioural microsimulation modelling of tax and transfer systems. Its aims are twofold. Firstly, the book discusses the rationale for the basic modelling approach adopted and provides information on econometric methods used to estimate behavioural relationships. Secondly, it describes the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS) in detail, explaining its main features, installation and use.After providing a broad review of tax modelling, the authors review alternative approaches to the analysis of labour supply behaviour, discuss the main components of behavioural microsimulation models and present econometric results concerning wage functions and preferences. They go on to provide a detailed description of MITTS, which was constructed by the authors in order to examine the implications of tax reforms in Australia. Microsimulation Modelling of Taxation and the Labour Market will appeal to those with a special interest in the analysis of tax and transfer systems and labour supply behaviour.

Nonlinear Models, Labour Markets and Exchange offers a number of broad introductory surveys in the areas of nonlinear modelling, labour economics and the economic analysis of exchange. This collection of articles consists largely of recently published refereed papers. The early chapters provide an introduction to the analysis of 'chaos and strange attractors' and the use of the very flexible generalised exponential family of frequency distributions in analysing both time series and cross-sectional distributions. The volume then provides syntheses of the theories of internal labour markets, trade union bargaining, and population ageing and its implications. It goes on to survey a range of topics in the broad area of the theory of exchange, which is central to the neoclassical economic model. Finally, the book provides some advice for students who are about to start their first piece of research. It ends with a unique survey of the history of economic analysis. Providing introductory material and syntheses of a wide range of topics, Nonlinear Models, Labour Markets and Exchange will be welcomed by economics academics and researchers interested in labour economics and econometrics.

Indirect taxes have become an increasingly important revenue-raising tool for governments in developed countries. In this book, John Creedy applies his wealth of experience and expertise to the analysis of indirect taxes and, in particular, concentrates on the modelling of indirect tax reform and its distributional implications.Initially, he examines the implications of alternative indirect tax systems and provides an introductory survey of various measures of welfare change and excess burden in the context of indirect taxes. He pays particular attention to the measurement issues involved and uses partial equilibrium models to uncover various aspects of tax reform. Specifically, he: addresses the questions of measuring welfare changes arising from price changes examines the built-in flexibility of various forms of consumption taxation calculates the possible redistributive effects of indirect taxes and illustrates his methods using case study examples of the indirect tax system in Australia examines the horizontal inequity of different consumption taxes considers the optimal direction of small changes in indirect tax rates analyses the positive and negative effects of a carbon tax Modelling Indirect Taxes and Tax Reform will be useful to scholars and policymakers interested in public economics and finance and modelling taxes.

This selection of John Creedy's essays on labour economics sheds light on the areas of labour mobility, skilled labour markets and trade unions and wages.Among other issues, Professor Creedy discusses: the effects of migration, population ageing and retirement on the labour market the economic analysis of internal labour markets job mobility, earnings and responsibility in skilled labour markets with a particular emphasis on chemists and professional scientists the relationship between trade unions, tax levels and relative wages Labour Mobility, Earnings and Unemployment will be a valuable point of reference for students and scholars of labour economics.

This book brings together John Creedy's most important essays on the history of economic analysis. The book contributes to our understanding of the development of economics by looking at the subject and some of its major players including Pareto, Edgeworth, Marshall and Wicksell, from an historical perspective. It reveals how learning about a subject and its past is critical to understanding current debates.

This major new book provides an accessible and innovative introduction to general equilibrium analysis and associated welfare economics. In this distinct and refreshing treatment, John Creedy develops a simple two sector model using only diagrams and simple mathematics to ensure that this treatment will be accessible to students.The analysis of exchange and the gains from trade in the context of price taking behaviour are the subject of the first part of the book. Special attention is given to general equilibrium supply and demand curves and, in contrast with partial equilibrium treatments, the possibility of multiple equilibria. Trading at disequilibrium prices, the influence of the numbers of traders and bargaining solutions are then discussed before production is added to the analysis and the two sector model constructed. General Equilibrium and Welfare will be welcomed for its accessible introduction to General Equilibrium analysis and for the strong emphasis it places on exchange, which is closely in line with the work of early neoclassical writers such as Jevons, Walras, Edgeworth and Wicksell.

In Fiscal Policy and Social Welfare John Creedy examines alternative tax and transfer systems and their redistributive effects.Drawing on original research, this volume concentrates on modelling tax structures and their implications for social welfare and income distribution. After reviewing various inequality and tax progressivity measures, as well as social welfare functions, the discussion moves systematically from a framework with fixed labour supplies to one in which labour supplies respond to changes in the tax system. Attention is given to taxes in a multi-period context, including the treatment of pension schemes. Finally, the analysis is extended to a general equilibrium framework involving many individuals. Extensive use is made of numerical examples and diagrams. Researchers, students and policy makers will welcome this rigorous and consistent treatment of alternative tax and transfer systems and their effects on social welfare, income distribution and tax progressivity, in both partial and general equilibrium contexts.

How far can efficiency be pursued without sacrificing equity? Do fiscal changes designed to improve incentives necessarily lead to greater inequality of incomes? Does the profitability of 'big business' really reflect economies of scale and scope or is it also a reflection of market power? In addressing these and other key questions, a group of internationally acclaimed economists demonstrates why issues of concentration and inequality in economic life are moving to the top of the political agenda in the 1990s. Drawing upon the pioneering work of Peter Hart, this volume reflects the range of his influence from theoretical examinations of measures of industrial concentration and income inequality, to detailed empirical explorations of changes in concentration over time. The volume includes essays on, among other issues, the Hart measure of income mobility, income distribution in Eastern Europe, the UK state pension scheme, trends in the concentration of UK manufacturing in the 1980s, the EC Merger Control Regulation, corporate research and development strategies and corporate technological specialization in international industries. Industrial Concentration and Economic Inequality will be particularly relevant for government policy makers, social analysts and economists concerned with income distribution and industrial policy.

Demand and Exchange in Economic Analysis provides a rare combination of detailed analysis of a central area of economics with the history of economic thought. The first part of the book examines major attempts to treat mathematically the partial equilibrium concept of demand conceived as a schedule. The second part, after generalizing Cournot's model of trade in a single good, traces the general equilibrium analysis of exchange. This adds to the concept of a demand curve the fundamental interpretation of the rate of exchange, or price ratio, in terms of the amount of one good offered in return for a unit of another good. The similarity in the treatments of Mill, Whewell, Marshall and Walras is revealed along with the emphasis on multiple equilibria. Edgeworth's grand synthesis and extension of Jevons's approach to exchange is then discussed in detail. The book will be of interest to a wide range of economists interested in placing modern theory in historical perspective.

This is the first English translation of Launhardt's Mathematische Begrundung der Volkswirtschaftslehre (1885), a major contribution to neoclassical economic theory which contains many important and original analyses. This edition will provide the basis for a re-evaluation of Launhardt's outstanding, but undervalued, contribution to economics. Taking the neoclassical emphasis on exchange as the central economic problem, Laundardt begins with a thorough treatment of the pure exchange model, then goes on to extend the treatment to the production of goods and the supply of labour, with a sophisticated general equilibrium perspective. It contains important analyses of savings and the role of capital goods, as well as an outstanding study of transport and the location of industry. Launhardt's book can, with justice, with be described as the first comprehensive treatise on welfare economics. Mathematical Principles of Economics will prove stimulating reading for economic theorists as well as those interested in the history of economics thought.

This book develops a number of analytical models and presents empirical analyses of the equity and efficiency effects of existing indirect taxes from New Zealand. Potential tax reforms including environmental taxes are also examined and the methods presented can easily be adapted to deal with other countries. Policy debates are inevitably influenced by value judgements, which are seldom made explicit either by governments or those engaging in public discussion. By concentrating on the empirical orders of magnitude, and by examining the implications of adopting alternative value judgements, the findings of this book contribute towards rational policy debate, rather than relying on guesswork and rhetoric. The equity and efficiency effects of indirect taxes are examined in detail, using the central concepts of welfare changes, the excess burden of taxation, and money metric utility measures. The indirect taxes examined include a carbon tax designed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The Distributional Effects of Indirect Taxes develops widely applicable models and will therefore appeal to economists interested in public economics, tax policy, inequality measurement, welfare economics and tax modelling. Economists in government departments and international agencies interested in public finance and inequality and poverty measurement will also find much to engage them in this book, as will policymakers concerned with indirect and environmental tax policy, inequality, and welfare economics.

The major industrialized countries are undergoing a significant demographic transition associated with low fertility rates combined with reduced mortality rates. A major consequence of the current transition is that populations are expected to age substantially over the next forty years. This innovative book studies the effects of population ageing with the associated factor of immigration, on social expenditure and public finance. The authors begin by providing an introduction to some of the main issues concerning population ageing and migration. This is followed by a discussion of the demographic and economic aspects of the transition towards an older population which is taking place in the major industrialized countries. Within this framework the impacts of ageing on government budgets and the labour market are analysed. The book then turns to a discussion of some of the economic, social and demographic issues related to immigration. Particular emphasis is placed on the Australian economy, which provides an interesting case study in view of its high immigration levels, particularly over the last fifty years. The authors project population structure and social expenditure patterns under a variety of assumptions concerning the number and composition of immigrants. The quantitative techniques developed to produce these projections can be applied without modification to any other country. Population Ageing, Migration and Social Expenditure will be of use to academics and students with an interest in public finance, public policy and population studies.

This book demonstrates how the reliable measurement of growth in tax revenues, both for a tax system and for its component taxes, is important for the design of tax policy. The need for discretionary changes in tax parameters (such as tax rates, income thresholds and allowances) is conditional on the expected automatic revenue growth generated by the tax system. The properties that generate these automatic revenue changes are referred to as the built-in flexibility, or revenue responsiveness, of the tax. This concept is the central focus of the analyses in this book, which provides an invaluable review and synthesis of analytical results and demonstrates how this concept can be applied in practice to yield estimates of revenue responsiveness in various countries. John Creedy and Norman Gemmell highlight how an understanding of the principal determinants of a tax system's responsiveness, and a knowledge of the relevant magnitudes, are important for the design and reform of tax policy where both revenue and redistributional considerations are typically central to the policy agenda.Providing extensions of analysis to cover indirect taxes, and direct and indirect taxes combined, as well as empirical applications for several countries, Modelling Tax Revenue Growth will be warmly welcomed by researchers and graduate students interested in public finance and government officials and those in international organisations interested in tax revenue growth.

This important book examines the economic policies required to reduce carbon dioxide emissions - a major source of pollution throughout the world. It explores the likely impact of environmental taxes on income distribution and economic welfare. The authors consider a tax on domestic fuel and power and a carbon tax, and the likely adverse distribution effects of these on a population. The analysis allows for the direct and indirect effects (through inter-industry transactions) of taxes on prices and consumers' responses to these price changes. The welfare effects are also estimated for a variety of income groups. The authors then evaluate the inequality and social welfare measures and consider whether the distributional effects can be overcome by adjusting transfer payments to compensate lower-income groups. This study examines environmental taxes in Australia with methods which can be applied to other countries, some of which were specifically designed to overcome data limitation problems. Environmental Taxes and Economic Welfare will be of special interest to researchers, academics, policymakers and advisers on taxation and environmental policy.

Research Without Tears provides a concise and fascinating guide for those starting their first research project and writing a paper, report or thesis. John Creedy, a well published writer himself in both journals and books, argues that the process of planning and executing a research project, and producing a research paper which communicates results in a clear and succinct way, is far from self-evident even to those with extensive experience of writing other types of report or essay.This unique and invaluable book therefore sets down explicitly some of those points that even experienced researchers often take for granted in an accessible and clear manner. The book covers topics including; planning a first research project; writing a first research paper; writing a thesis and the relationship with a supervisor; invaluable sections with advice on structure, writing clearly and pitfalls to avoid; and, the differences between journal and book publishing and what to expect from editors of both publishing formats as well as experienced advice on the processes of publishing. This highly interesting and valuable book will be essential reading for academics in economics and other related sciences.

Population ageing is an important trend which will be experienced in industrialized countries in the early years of the next century. This significant book examines aspects of population ageing and pensions, with an emphasis on the design and use of simple economic models to focus on particular aspects of a very broad problem. The analysis of pensions presents many complex problems. A major aim of this book is to demonstrate how reasonably simple economic models can be designed and used to shed some light on the issues involved in population growth and pension provision. The basic analytics of population growth and pension structure are first explored. Projections for Australia are examined and used to model ageing and social expenditure and to estimate the 'burden' of aged care on future workers. The author goes on to investigate pensions and pension finance, and examines several types of economic model before turning to the analysis of alternative pension arrangements using a lifetime simulation model. The results of the study suggest that both lower contribution rates and a universal pension encourage a later retirement age. This book will prove invaluable to students and scholars of public sector economics, welfare economics, social economics and public finance.

Tax policy questions may relate to specific problems, concerning perhaps the revenue implications of a particular tax, or they may involve an extensive analysis of the cost and redistributive effects of many taxes and transfer payments. This book is concerned with the ways in which tax policy design can be enhanced by the use of a behavioural tax microsimulation model capable of evaluating the effects of planned or actual tax reforms. An advantage of such a large-scale tax simulation model, which reflects the heterogeneity of the population and captures the details of the tax structure, is that it can examine detailed practical policy questions and can provide direct inputs into policy debates. After introducing behavioural models, the authors discuss the role of means testing, several hypothetical policy reforms, actual and proposed reforms and recent modelling developments.Tax Policy Design and Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling will be of interest to academics and researchers of economics, econometrics and public finance. It will also be useful reading for policymakers responsible for the formulation of taxation.

This highly topical book explores key issues in evaluating the long-run implications of population ageing for pensions, taxation, intergenerational equity and social welfare. Societies face long-term phenomena, such as demographic change and climate change that impose costs and benefits far into the future. These present challenges for policymakers in planning intertemporal consumption paths that balance the goals of efficiency and equity. An exploration of these issues, with respect to population ageing in particular, is the primary motivation for this book. John Creedy and Ross Guest evaluate these problems with a particular focus on the role of concepts, assumptions and value judgements. This book will be a fascinating read for researchers interested in the social evaluation of population ageing and climate change. Public policy makers and advisers will find the analysis of practical policy questions such as alternative regimes for taxing public pensions of special interest. Graduate students of macroeconomics and public economics will also find helpful discussions of social discounting, the efficiency and equity effects of tax smoothing, and potential new effects of population ageing on labour productivity.

The fundamental role of individual ageing is something that everyone is necessarily aware of, and the division of the life cycle into a number of distinct stages has been recognised for many centuries.This volume collects 32 articles concerned with a variety of economic aspects of individual and population ageing. They have been arranged under four main headings as follows: individual ageing and the life cycle; population ageing; ageing and social insurance; and macroeconomic effects. The editor has prepared a fresh introduction to accompany the piece which aims to set the context and discuss some of the major issues.