There is, first of all, the distinction between that part of our belief which is rational and that part which is not. If a man believes something for a reason which is preposterous or for no reason at all, and what he believes turns out to be true for some reason not known to him, he cannot be said to believe it rationally, although he believes it and it is in fact true. On the other hand, a man may rationally believe a proposition to be probable, when it is in fact false. -from Chapter II: Probability in Relation to the Theory of Knowledge" His fame as an economist aside, John Maynard Keynes may be best remembered for saying, "In the long run, we are all dead." That phrase may well be the most succinct expression of the theory of probability every uttered. For a longer explanation of the premise that underlies much of modern mathematics and science, Keynes's A Treatise on Probability is essential reading. First published in 1920, this is the foundational work of probability theory, which helped establish the author's enormous influence on modern economic and even political theories. Exploring aspects of randomness and chance, inductive reasoning and logical statistics, this is a work that belongs in the library of any interested in numbers and their application in the real world. AUTHOR BIO: British economist JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES (1883-1946) also wrote The Economic Consequences of the Peace (1919), The End of Laissez-Faire (1926), The Means to Prosperity (1933), and General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936).

John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) is perhaps the foremost economic thinker of the twentieth century. On economic theory, he ranks with Adam Smith and Karl Marx; and his impact on how economics was practiced, from the Great Depression to the 1970s, was unmatched. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money was first published in 1936. But its ideas had been forming for decades ? as a student at Cambridge, Keynes had written to a friend of his love for 'Free Trade and free thought'. Keynes's limpid style, concise prose, and vivid descriptions have helped to keep his ideas alive - as have the novelty and clarity, at times even the ambiguity, of his macroeconomic vision. He was troubled, above all, by high unemployment rates and large disparities in wealth and income. Only by curbing both, he thought, could individualism, 'the most powerful instrument to better the future', be safeguarded. The twenty-first century may yet prove him right. In The Economic Consequences of the Peace (1919), Keynes elegantly and acutely exposes the folly of imposing austerity on a defeated and struggling nation.

An Unabridged Printing, With Bibliography And A Comprehensive Index. Chapters Include: The Meaning Of Probability - Probability In Relation To The Theory Of Knowledge - The Measurement Of Probabilities - The Principle Of Indifference - Other Methods Of Determining Probabilities - The Weight Of Arguments - Historical Retrospect - The Frequency Theory Of Probability - The Theory Of Groups, With Special Reference To Logical Consistence, Inference, And Logical Priority - The Definitions And Axioms Of Inference And Probability - The Fundamental Theorems Of Necessary Inference - The Fundamental Theorems Of Probable Inference - Numerical Measurement And Approximation Of Probabilities - Some Problems In Inverse Probability, Including Averages - The Nature Of Argument By Analogy - The Value Of Multiplication Of Instances, Or Pure Induction - Some Historical Notes On Induction - The Meanings Of Objective Chance, And Of Randomness - Some Problems Arising Out Of The Discussion Of Chance - The Application Of Probability To Conduct - The Nature Of Statistical Inference - The Law Of Great Numbers - The Theorems Of Bernoulli, Poisson, And Tchebycheff - Etc., Etc.

As the most important figures in the history of economics, the work of John Maynard Keynes is nearly without precedent in the history of economics. THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF PEACE, first published in 1919, achieved great notoriety due of its contemptuous critique of the French premier as well as President Woodrow Wilson. Keynes criticized the Allied victors for signing the Treaty of Versailles in 1920, which would have ruinous consequences for Europe. At the time, few world and economic leaders appreciated his criticisms as Keynes saw his worst fears realized in the rise of Adolf Hitler and the resulting devastation of World War II. JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES (1883-1946) was born into an academic family. His father, John Nevile Keynes, was a lecturer at the University of Cambridge where he taught logic and political economy while his son was educated at Eton and Cambridge. Most importantly, Keynes revolutionized economics with his classic book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936). This work is generally regarded as perhaps the most influential social science treatise of the 20th Century, as it quickly and permanently changed the scope of economic thought. Interestingly, Keynes was a central member of the Bloomsbury Group, a collection of upper-class Edwardian aesthetes that served as his life outside of economics, which included Virginia Woolf, Clive Bell, and Lytton Strachey.

In 1936 Keynes published the most provocative book written by any economist of his generation. Arguments about the book continued until his death in 1946 and still continue today. This new edition, published 70 years after the original, features a new introduction by Paul Krugman which discusses the significance and continued relevance of "The General Theory,"

Published in 1913, this is the first book from the renowned economist, and demonstrates the beginnings of the philosophies of macroeconomics and government intervention into economic matters that would characterize his later work. Here, Keynes discusses... . how changing from a silver to a gold standard impacted the Indian economy . a brief history of the gold standard . some surprising differences between coins and paper currency . governmental policies regarding reserves and cash balances . the strengths and weaknesses of the Indian banking system . and more. British economist JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES (1883-1946) also wrote The Economic Consequences of the Peace (1919), The End of Laissez-Faire (1926), The Means to Prosperity (1933), and General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936). ALSO FROM COSIMO: Keynes's A Treatise on Probability and The Economic Consequences of Peace

John Maynard Keynes, then a rising young economist, participated in the Paris Peace Conference in 1919 as chief representative of the British Treasury and advisor to Prime Minister David Lloyd George. He resigned after desperately trying and failing to reduce the huge demands for reparations being made on Germany. The Economic Consequences of the Peace is Keynes' brilliant and prophetic analysis of the effects that the peace treaty would have both on Germany and, even more fatefully, the world. A popular lecturer of economics at Cambridge University and editor of the Economic Journal, Keynes made The Economic Consequences of the Peace a major step in his career. It was translated into a dozen languages and sold 100,000 copies in six months. Taken seriously even by those who were opposed to his claims, the book helped lift economics to a new, higher level of recognition and acceptance. This volume, with its insightful portraits of Lloyd George, Georges Clemenceau, and Woodrow Wilson, remains one of the great works of political economy of our time. In a penetrating introduction written for this new edition, David Felix explores Keynes' reasons for writing the book, analyzes the author's arguments, and paints an historical backdrop of the period during which it was written.

John Maynard Keynes, then a rising young economist, participated in the Paris Peace Conference in 1919 as chief representative of the British Treasury and advisor to Prime Minister David Lloyd George. He resigned after desperately trying and failing to reduce the huge demands for reparations being made on Germany. The Economic Consequences of the Peace is Keynes' brilliant and prophetic analysis of the effects that the peace treaty would have both on Germany and, even more fatefully, the world. A popular lecturer of economics at Cambridge University and editor of the Economic Journal, Keynes made The Economic Consequences of the Peace a major step in his career. It was translated into a dozen languages and sold 100,000 copies in six months. Taken seriously even by those who were opposed to his claims, the book helped lift economics to a new, higher level of recognition and acceptance. This volume, with its insightful portraits of Lloyd George, Georges Clemenceau, and Woodrow Wilson, remains one of the great works of political economy of our time. In a penetrating introduction written for this new edition, David Felix explores Keynes' reasons for writing the book, analyzes the author's arguments, and paints an historical backdrop of the period during which it was written. "The most important economic document relating to World War I and its aftermath."--John Kenneth Galbraith "This is a very great booka. Mr. Keynes writes with a fullness of knowledge, an incisiveness of judgment, and a penetration into the ultimate causes of economic eventsa. The style is like finely hammered steel. It is full of unforgettable phrases and of vivid portraits etched in the biting acid of a passionate moral indignation."--H. J. Laski, The Nation John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) was one of the greatest economic theorists of the twentieth century. He was chairman of the liberal journal of opinion The Nation and economics advisor for more than thirty years to British governments. He wrote several books, including his masterpiece, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, the two-volume Treatise on Money, and A Tract on Monetary Reform. David Felix is professor of history emeritus at the City University of New York. His books include Biography of an Idea: John Maynard Keynes and The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money and Keynes: A Critical Life.

In 1936 Keynes published the most provocative book written by any economist of his generation. The General Theory, as it is known to all economists, cut through all the Gordian Knots of pre-Keynesian discussion of the trade cycle and propounded a new approach to the determination of the level of economic activity, the problems of employment and unemployment and the causes of inflation. Arguments about the book continued until his death in 1946 and still continue today. Despite all that has been written in the subsequent years, Keynes and his book still represent the turning point between the old economics and the new from which each generation of economists needs to take its inspiration.

Once the urgent problems of reparations, which had deeply troubled Keynes at the Peace Conference at Versailles, were on their way towards solution, Keynes turned to the equally grave problems of the currencies of Europe and their adjustment to the post-war world. These issues had been discussed in the series of Reconstruction Supplements of the Manchester Guardian Commercial that he had edited during 1922. In the Tract Keynes drew heavily on his own contributions to that series. This edition makes available the variations between the texts. The Tract remains of interest in three respects. First, it shows the state of Keynes's thinking about monetary problems and the causes of inflation in the early 1920s. Second, it provides one of the clearest expositions ever written of the determination of forward exchange rates. Third, it shows Keynes already favouring flexible exchange rates as a means of allowing independence in national economic policy.