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This year, the NBER Macroeconomics Annual celebrates its thirtieth
volume. The first two papers examine China's macroeconomic
development. "Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy" by Chun
Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha outlines the key
characteristics of growth and business cycles in China.
"Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom" by Hanming Fang, Quanlin
Gu, Wei Xiong, and Li-An Zhou constructs a new house price index,
showing that Chinese house prices have grown by ten percent per
year over the past decade. The third paper, "External and Public
Debt Crises" by Cristina Arellano, Andrew Atkeson, and Mark Wright,
asks why there appear to be large differences across countries and
subnational jurisdictions in the effect of rising public debts on
economic outcomes. The fourth, "Networks and the Macroeconomy: An
Empirical Exploration" by Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, and William
Kerr, explains how the network structure of the US economy
propagates the effect of gross output productivity shocks across
upstream and downstream sectors. The fifth and sixth papers
investigate the usefulness of surveys of household's beliefs for
understanding economic phenomena. "Expectations and Investment," by
Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, and Andrei Shleifer, demonstrates that
a chief financial officer's expectations of a firm's future
earnings growth is related to both the planned and actual future
investment of that firm. "Declining Desire to Work and Downward
Trends in Unemployment and Participation" by Regis Barnichon and
Andrew Figura shows that an increasing number of prime-age
Americans who are not in the labor force report no desire to work
and that this decline accelerated during the second half of the
1990s.
The thirty-first edition of the NBER Macroeconomics Annual features
theoretical and empirical research on central issues in
contemporary macroeconomics. The first two papers are rigorous and
data-driven analyses of the European financial crisis. The third
paper introduces a new set of facts about economic growth and
financial ratios as well as a new macrofinancial database for the
study of historical financial booms and busts. The fourth paper
studies the historical effects of Federal Reserve efforts to
provide guidance about the future path of the funds rate. The fifth
paper explores the distinctions between models of price setting and
associated nominal frictions using data on price setting behavior.
The sixth paper considers the possibility that the economy displays
nonlinear dynamics that lead to cycles rather than long-term
convergence to a steady state. The volume also includes a short
paper on the decline in the rate of global economic growth.
This volume contains six studies on current topics in
macroeconomics. The first shows that while assuming rational
expectations is unrealistic, a finite-horizon forward planning
model can yield results similar to those of a rational expectations
equilibrium. The second explores the aggregate risk of the U.S.
financial sector, and in particular whether it is safer now than
before the 2008 financial crisis. The third analyzes "factorless
income," output that is not measured as capital or labor income.
Next, a study argues that the financial crisis increased the
perceived risk of a very bad economic and financial outcome, and
explores the propagation of large, rare shocks. The next paper
documents the substantial recent changes in the manufacturing
sector and the decline in employment among prime-aged Americans
since 2000. The last paper analyzes the dynamic macroeconomic
effects of border adjustment taxes.
The twenty-seventh volume of the "NBER Macroeconomics Annual"
features two papers that illuminate causes of the recent financial
crisis: how firms accessed credit during the financial crisis and
how changing price and treatment of risk in mortgage lending was
measured in the UK in the decades before the crisis. Other papers
in this volume include a study of individual prices over time that
draws out the implications of observed price adjustment for
macroeconomic models of price stickiness, a focus on the
implications of microeconomic estimates of labor supply for the
determination of employment rates, a look at the empirical validity
of the Keynesian view of reasons for employment declines during
recessions, and an innovative paper that measures the efficacy of
fiscal stimulus by looking at the economic impact of changes in
federal highway spending across US states.
The thirty-first edition of the NBER Macroeconomics Annual features
theoretical and empirical research on central issues in
contemporary macroeconomics. The first two papers are rigorous and
data-driven analyses of the European financial crisis. The third
paper introduces a new set of facts about economic growth and
financial ratios as well as a new macrofinancial database for the
study of historical financial booms and busts. The fourth paper
studies the historical effects of Federal Reserve efforts to
provide guidance about the future path of the funds rate. The fifth
paper explores the distinctions between models of price setting and
associated nominal frictions using data on price setting behavior.
The sixth paper considers the possibility that the economy displays
nonlinear dynamics that lead to cycles rather than long-term
convergence to a steady state. The volume also includes a short
paper on the decline in the rate of global economic growth.
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