This book is an expanded version of the symposium which was intended to bring to the audience the views of a scientist in government, who is conversant with the problem of public policy formation, particularly as it is involved how to make use of modern technology in the public interest.

From various vantage points the authors consider the topic of judgment and decision in policy formation. Richard Lamm, governor of Colorado, describes the problem of utilizing scientific knowledge in the context of political survival. Joseph Coates, assistant to the director, Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, explores the nature of public policy issues. Kenneth Hammond, director of the Center for the Study of Judgment and decision in Policy Formation at the University of Colorado, describes the competence of thought that can he brought to bear on public policy issues. Paul Slovic, Decision Research Inc., addresses the problem of risk assessment in policy formation from the point of view of a cognitive psychologist. Ward Edwards, director, Social Science Research Institute, University of Southern California, describes the general manner in which decision theory may be applied to policy formation. Kenneth Boulding, program director, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, provides an overview of judgment and decision in policy formation. Eillel Einhorn, professor of industrial psychology, University of Chicago, shows the consequences of fallible judgment for social policy formation. Kenneth Hammond and Leonard Adelman provide an example of the application of judgment analysis to a public policy issue.

Egon Brunswik is one of the most brilliant, creative and least understood and appreciated psychologists/philosophers of the 20th century. This book presents a collection of Brunswik's most important papers together with interpretive comments by prominent scholars who explain the intent and development of his thought. This collection and the accompanying diverse examples of the application of his ideas will encourage a deeper understanding of Brunswik in the 21st century than was the case in the 20th century. The 21st century already shows signs of acceptance of Brunswikian thought with the appearance of psychologists with a different focus; emulation of physical science is of less importance, and positive contributions toward understanding behavior outside the laboratory without abandoning rigor are claiming more notice. As a result, Brunswik's theoretical and methodological views are already gaining the attention denied them in the 20th century. The plan of this book is to provide, for the first time, in one place the articles that show the origins of his thought, with all their imaginative and creative spirit, as well as thoughtful, scholarly interpretations of the development, meaning and application of his ideas to modern psychology. Thus, his views will become more understandable and more widely disseminated, as well as advanced through the fresh meaning given to them by the psychologists of the 21st century.

Researchers in a growing number of fields--public policy, law, business, medicine, psychology, engineering, and others--are working to understand and improve human judgment and decision making. This book, which presupposes no formal training, brings together a selection of key articles in the area, with careful organization, introduction and commentaries. Issues involving medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, labor negotiations, risk, public policy, business strategy, eyewitnesses, and jury decisions are treated in this largely expanded volume. This is a revision of Arkes and Hammond's 1986 collection on judgment and decision making. Updated and extended, the focus of this volume is interdisciplinary and applied.

This book introduces a new topic; a critical researched-based analysis of the role of human judgment in social policy formation. It applies what has been learned from research on human judgment to specific examples - from the Challenger disaster to present-day debates on health care.

Human judgment can be a source of both hope and fear in the creation of social policy. Yet this important process has rarely been examined because research on human judgment has been scarce. Now, however, the results of 50 years of empirical work offer an unprecedented opportunity to examine human judgment and the basis of our hopes and fears. Numerous examples from law, medicine, engineering, and economics are used throughout to demonstrate these and other features of human judgment in action.

With Beyond Rationality, Kenneth R. Hammond, one of the most respected and experienced experts in judgment and decision-making, sums up his life's work and persuasively argues that decisions should be based on balance and pragmatism rather than rigid ideologies.
Hammond has long focused on the dichotomy between theories of correspondence, whereby arguments correspond with reality, and coherence, whereby arguments strive to be internally consistent. He has persistently proposed a middle approach that draws from both of these modes of thought and so avoids the blunders of either extreme. In this volume, Hammond shows how particular ways of thinking that are common in the political process have led to the mistaken judgments that created our current political crisis. He illustrates this argument by analyzing penetrating case studies emphasizing the political consequences that arise when decision makers consciously or unconsciously ignore their adversaries' particular mode of thought. These analyses range from why Kennedy and Khruschev misunderstood each other to why Colin Powell erred in his judgments over the presence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. For anyone concerned about the current state of politics in the U.S. and where it will lead us, Beyond Rationality is required reading.

From the O.J. Simpson verdict to peace-making in the Balkans, the critical role of human judgment--complete with its failures, flaws, and successes--has never been more hotly debated and analyzed than it is today. This landmark work examines the dynamics of judgment and its impact on events that take place in human society, which require the direction and control of social policy. Research on social policy typically focuses on content. This book concentrates instead on the decision-making process itself. Drawing on 50 years of empirical research in decision theory, Hammond examines the possibilities for wisdom and cognitive competence in the formation of social policies, and applies these lessons to specific examples, such as the space shuttle Challenger disaster and the health care debate. Uncertainly, he tells us, can seldom be fully eliminated; thus error is inevitable, and injustice for some unavoidable. But the capacity for make wise judgments increases to the extent that we understand the potential pitfalls and their origin. The judgment process for example involves an ongoing rivalry between intuition and analysis, accuracy and rationality. The source of this tension requires an examination of the evolutionary roots of human judgment and how these fundamental features may be changing as our civilization increasingly becomes an information and knowledge-based society. With numerous examples from law, medicine, engineering, and economics, the author dramatizes the importance of judgment and its role in the formation of social policies which affect us all, and issues the first comprehensive examination of its underlying dynamics.

Judgments Under Stress presents a new and exciting approach to understanding the effects of stressful conditions on judgment and decision making -- a topic so important it was addressed in a Congressional Hearing in 1988. Consisting mainly of two parts, the book synthesizes a vast body of cognitive psychology research into an innovative theoretical framework. Part I provides the reader with background in regards to judgment under stress while Part II discusses a new approach to studying it. Author Kenneth Hammond extends his examination from the effects of stress on professional judgments to its effects on moral and political judgments, working out a conceptual framework wholly within a psychological context. The book also includes discussions on sleep deprivation, fatigue, noise, heat, shock, and time pressure. In addition to laboratory experiments, Hammond looks at real life historical events such as Iran Flight 655 and the Bay of Pigs Invasion. Judgments Under Stress provides a shrewd analysis of the effects of stress on human rationale, making it ideal for professional psychologists as well as for those interested in political science and social policy.