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Targeting has been the central problem of air strategy since the
dawn of modern airpower. One of the most difficult challenges for
airpower strategists has been how to relate the physical or
functional destruction of targets to attainment of political and
military objectives. This paper examines the fundamental problem of
relating destruction inflicted on a target system to the desired
outcome and presents the Destruction-Outcome Linkage Model to serve
as a framework for analysis of past air campaigns. This model links
destruction of the pieces of a target system to the desired
outcome. Using the Destruction-Outcome Linkage Model as a framework
for analysis, this paper traces how airpower strategists have
conceptualized the linkage, applied it to past air campaigns and
the extent to which their conception was accurate based on the
results achieved. The goal is to determine how effectively air
strategists have linked destruction to outcome and draw conclusions
about the Air Force's ability to make such linkages in the future.
To sufficiently narrow the scope of the paper, a single target
system will be used to illustrate this analysis -- the
transportation system.
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