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This major book presents, for the first time, an authoritative
history of developments in macroeconometric modelling since the
1930s. It focuses in particular on the construction of
mathematico-statistical models of entire economies, estimated from
national accounts and other macroeconomic data. International and
comparative in scope, the book contains chapters prepared by
specialists from the different countries concerned. This landmark
book is indispensable to an understanding of the history and
development of large scale econometric models of modern economies.
The Japanese economy is beginning to show signs of recovery after
years of stagnation/deflation, but many Japanese policymakers warn
that this economic growth may be sluggish: slower than in the
United States and certainly slower than in other East Asian
countries. Japan faces significant economic problems, including an
aging population, a large fiscal deficit, and the need to adjust to
the IT economy and to competition with the rest of East Asia. A
slow growth scenario would greatly reduce opportunities for new
productive investment and would make it increasingly difficult to
provide for Japan's growing social needs. The authors of this book
argue that Japan can and should grow more rapidly, and examine the
reasons for the sluggish performance of the Japanese economy. For
example, some Japanese economic sectors, particularly in
distribution and finance, have failed to take advantage of new
information and communications technology to accelerate the growth
of productivity, as has happened in other countries, such as the
US. Production function studies and econometric model simulations
suggest that with appropriate policies the Japanese economy can
grow more rapidly and deal with its future problems. The book
posits a number of policy proposals which would help to accelerate
Japan's economic growth This book will be of interest to students
of the Japanese economy, macroeconomics and international
economies, and also to policymakers and professionals interested in
Japan's economy.
The computer revolution of the 1960s ushered in a golden period of
econometric model building. Lawrence Klein was constantly in the
forefront of this development. He was awarded the Alfred Nobel
Memorial Prize in Economics for this and other contributions to
applied econometrics.The 20th century witnessed a great expansion
of economics as a scholarly discipline. The editor has chosen a
selection of papers which sparked his interest as a student, a
teacher and a researcher. This key volume includes both classic
articles as well as lesser known papers which Professor Klein
judges will stand the test of time.
The Japanese economy is beginning to show signs of recovery after
years of stagnation/deflation, but many Japanese policymakers warn
that this economic growth may be sluggish: slower than in the
United States and certainly slower than in other East Asian
countries. Japan faces significant economic problems, including an
aging population, a large fiscal deficit, and the need to adjust to
the IT economy and to competition with the rest of East Asia. A
slow growth scenario would greatly reduce opportunities for new
productive investment and would make it increasingly difficult to
provide for Japan's growing social needs. The authors of this book
argue that Japan can and should grow more rapidly, and examine the
reasons for the sluggish performance of the Japanese economy. For
example, some Japanese economic sectors, particularly in
distribution and finance, have failed to take advantage of new
information and communications technology to accelerate the growth
of productivity, as has happened in other countries, such as the
US. Production function studies and econometric model simulations
suggest that with appropriate policies the Japanese economy can
grow more rapidly and deal with its future problems. The book
posits a number of policy proposals which would help to accelerate
Japan's economic growth This book will be of interest to students
of the Japanese economy, macroeconomics and international
economies, and also to policymakers and professionals interested in
Japan's economy.
This important book, prepared under the direction of Nobel Laureate
Lawrence R. Klein, shows how economic forecasts are made. It
explains how modern developments in information technology have
made it possible to forecast frequently - at least monthly but also
weekly or bi-weekly - depending upon the perceived needs of
potential forecast users and also on the availability of updated
material. The book focuses on forecasts in a diverse range of
economies including the United States, China, India, Russia,
Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey. At a time of great
economic uncertainty, this book makes an important contribution by
showing how new information technology can be used to prepare
national economic forecasts.
Financial crises are recurring phenomena that can cause significant
economic and societal loss. This book is therefore vitally
important as it analyzes why and how financial crises occur, the
extent of their impact, and what can be done to prevent their
recurrence or reduce the damage they cause. Comprising original and
never-before-published papers by distinguished economists, this
book offers insights about lessons that were or should have been
learned from recent outbreaks of such crises in East Asia and
elsewhere. Recent Financial Crises also presents a set of
econometric studies of issues such as labor market behavior,
investment and productivity, and exchange rate adjustments.
Although China did not have a crisis, its economic behavior was
closely monitored in order to see if that had any effect on the
crisis conditions. In this respect, the book contains an estimation
of China's 'core' inflation rate, as well as its 'true' cost of
living index, over a 20-year period spanning the Asian financial
crisis. In general, collectively, the studies point to a need for
ongoing structural reforms to minimize vulnerability to crises or
soften their impact. The necessity for resorting to viable safety
nets is also stressed. Policymakers and central bankers will find
this book of great value, as will scholars and researchers at many
levels of academe, involved in financial, business, and
international economics.
There is much confusion in the economics literature on wage
determination and the employment-inflation trade-off. Few model
builders pay as much careful attention to the definition and
meaning of long-run concepts as did Albert Ando. Expanding on years
of painstaking work by Ando, the contributors elaborate on the main
issues of economic analysis and policies that concerned him.Some of
the issues discussed include long-run properties of dynamic
econometric models, demographic issues of modern times,
stabilization policies - especially for Japan - and interaction
between monetary and real economy issues, as well as life-cycle
behavior patterns, and the appropriate role of the Phillips Curve
and the determination of prices. Paying close attention to the
concepts and properties of models, Long-run Growth and Short Run
Stabilization is for those interested in the macroeconomics of the
US, Italy, and Japan. Scholars of aggregative dynamic models based
on realistic reasoning will benefit from the information imparted,
as will policymakers who want to understand the functioning of the
modern economy.
Based on the author's thesis (doctoral--M.I.T., 1944).
Models of the American economy exist in government, research
institutes, universities, and private corporations. Given the
proliferation, it is wise to take stock because these models come
from diverse sources and describe different conditions from
alternative points of view. They could be saying different things
about the economy. The high-level comparative studies in this
volume, gathered from several issues of the International Economic
Review, with a substantive introduction and the addition of more
comparative material, evaluate the performance of eleven models of
the American economy: the Wharton Mark Ill Model; Brookings Model;
Hickman-Coen Annual Model; Liu-Hwa Monthly Model; Data Resources,
Inc. (DRI) Model; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Model; Michigan
Quarterly Econometric (MOEM) Model; Wharton Annual and Industry
Model; Anticipation Version of the Wharton Mark Ill Model/Fair
Model; U.S. Department of Commerce (BEA) Model.Each of the
proprietors or builders of these models describes his own system in
his own words. These studies come closer than ever before to
standardizing model operations for testing purposes.Some of the
models are monthly, while others are annual. but the quarterly unit
of time is the most frequent. Some are demand oriented, others are
supply oriented, and focus on the input-output sectors of the
economy. Some use only observed. objective data; others use
subjective. anticipatory data. Both large and small models are
included. In spite of the diversity, the contributors have
cooperated to trace the differences between their models to root
causes and to report jointly the results of their research. There
are also some general papers that look at model performance from
outside the CEME group.
Part of a series, this volume comprises a selection of
methodology-oriented papers presented at the 25th International
Conference of the Applied Econometrics Association on International
Commodity Market Modelling which took place at the World Bank,
Washington, 1988. Economic and statistical analyses are obviously
of great importance in studying commodity markets. A deep knowledge
of market-clearing processes, the institutional structures of the
industries related to each commodity market whether on the supply
or demand side and the statistical methods of data handling for
inference purposes are all needed in order to make good sense of
the wealth of information on commodity market data. In addition, a
technological understanding of the economic processes underlying
each market is necessary. The agronomy of crop production, the
techniques of crop distribution from harvest to end-use, the
contributions of meteorology, the engineering of metallurgy, the
engineering of processing factories, the combating of oil spills,
the control of pollution and many other technological aspects of
the different markets are essential for a good understanding of the
forces at work in each case. Also legal and political factors play
roles in the markets and require some specialized knowledge of
their effects. Almost every market is different and so a
specialized technological background is required, but that adds
much substance to the research. By fitting together appropriate
cross-disciplinary bodies of information in commodity market
studies, a high degree of interest and analytical challenge can be
attained.
This book presents Professor Lawrence R Klein and his group's last
quarterly econometric model of the United States economy that they
had produced at the University of Pennsylvania. This is the last
econometric model that Lawrence Klein and his disciples have left
after some 50 years of cumulated efforts of constructing the US
economy model up to around 2000. It was widely known as the WEFA
Econometric Model Mark 10, and is the culmination of Professor
Klein's research which spans more than 70 years, and would please
not only Professor Klein's old students and colleagues, but also
younger students who have heard so much of Klein models but have
yet to see the latest model in its complete and printed form.
This book offers the representative macroeconometric models and
their applications for the Japanese economy in different
development stages throughout the postwar years up to the present.
It presents a summary of three types of macroeconometric models and
analyses: Social accounting analyses of national income and related
indices following the tradition of C Clark, S Kuznets, R Stone and
World Bank Development Reports; Inter-industrial and inter-regional
analyses of the Japanese economy a la W Leontief and the CGE
(computable general equilibrium) type of applications to
Comprehensive Development Plans; Macroeconometric model building
for the Japanese economy and its applications with a survey of
various models in Japan, including the historic Osaka University
ISER (Institute of Social and Economic Research) model and present
day Government models. As many Asian economies are going through
the stages of development that Japan has experienced over the past
few decades, this book will be extremely relevant to them and other
developing countries as a reference for years to come.
This is the very first book to offer seven substantial econometric
models of the Chinese economy with the statistical data used, so
that the reader will be able to reproduce them all and test them
for any policy alternatives. The book presents up-to-date models
produced both inside and outside China, so that readers can
understand most of the advanced studies of the Chinese economy by
Chinese experts at the present time. This is an invaluable
reference for graduate students and scholars working on Chinese
economic problems.
This volume compares strategic properties of the leading
macroeconometric models of the United States. It summarizes the
work of an ongoing seminar supported by the National Science
Foundation and chaired by Lawrence R. Klein of the University of
Pennsylvania. The Seminar meets three times annually. Comparisons
are made across models for such characteristics as conventional
multipliers (fiscal, monetary, and supply side shocks), J-curve
response to dollar depreciation, and forecast performance under
consistent assumptions. There are in-depth comparisons of some
models and investigation of use of high frequency information to
improve forecasts. There are also analyses of the sources of
forecast error. The core structures of models, especially their
ISLM cores, are compared. The volume contains one chapter on
comparison across models of different developing countries. In
addition to the contributions by participating model builders who
meet regularly, the book contains critical appraisals by outsiders.
The contributors include many distinguished economists in model use
and analysis. Many are operators of the countries best known
modelling facilities. The introduction was written by Lawrence R.
Klein, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economic Science in 1980, for
his work in construction and use of econometric models.
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